Clay Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$242,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 150 days

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,742.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,078 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,742
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: -9.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3008 Templegate Ct	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (+4%)	6mo	$239,530	$185	71
3513 Hank Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	1mo	$267,999	$191	66
3711 Jade Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+15%)	13mo	$249,847	$174	55
2208 Starstruck Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+12%)	2mo	$261,999	$187	51
3864 Golden Valley Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+15%)	18mo	$281,294	$196	50
2906 Acacia Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+1%)	19mo	$249,000	$197	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-60,227
• Equity at exit: $40,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-73,627
• Equity at exit: $23,322

Cash invested: $75,528 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,046/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,360

Max offer price $232,147

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,435
• Closing costs: $8,092
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	0.38mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	0.64mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	0.68mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	0.73mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	0.73mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	0.76mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	0.77mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	0.78mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	0.79mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	0.82mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,131	$1.42	1d	5	0.82mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	0.82mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	44d	1	1.01mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	3d	1	1.02mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	44d	1	1.04mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	25d	1	1.04mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.07mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	3d	1	1.08mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	15d	1	1.09mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	44d	1	1.11mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	25d	1	1.13mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	3d	1	1.13mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	44d	1	1.14mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	25d	1	1.15mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	1.16mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	25d	1	1.17mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	3d	1	1.18mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	44d	1	1.19mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	25d	1	1.20mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	1.20mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	2d	1	1.20mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,765	$1.45	5d	1	1.21mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	44d	1	1.21mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	44d	1	1.21mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	1.22mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	25d	1	1.24mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	2d	1	1.28mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	44d	1	1.31mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,990 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-01-19
    listed $242,990 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,110
• − Property taxes: −$4,046
• − Insurance: −$1,349
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$7,847
• Taxable loss: −$7,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Heartland, TX, is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level. It has a good exterior, roof, and interior, with minor maintenance needed for painting and gutter cleaning. Updates like fresh paint and clean gutters can significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $242,990 Zillow