430 County Highway 58 · Guin, AL 35563

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1993 1.30 ac lot $54/sqft · 37% below area Est $174k · 37% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in Guin, Alabama offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and is conveniently located just minutes from Marion County High School. Built in 1993, the home features a functional layout with generously sized rooms, and 2 full bathrooms. While it does need a little TLC, it has great potential and would be an excellent opportunity for a first-time home-buyer or an investor looking to add value. With the right touch, this property could truly shine. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#275 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,158
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -36.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8266 US Highway 43	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-11%)	12mo	$175,000	$97	51
7991 US Hwy 43	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,969 (-3%)	23mo	$165,000	$84	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $67,860
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $193,444
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35563

• Home prices YoY: 17.2%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $828

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $110,000 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    This adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in Guin, Alabama offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and is conveniently located just minutes from Marion County High School. Built in 1993, the home features a functional layout with generously sized rooms, and 2 full bathrooms. While it does need a little TLC, it has great potential and would be an excellent opportunity for a first-time home-buyer or an investor looking to add value. With the right touch, this property could truly shine. Property is being sold AS-IS.

17. 2026-02-05
    listed $120,000 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    This adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in Guin, Alabama offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and is conveniently located just minutes from Marion County High School. Built in 1993, the home features a functional layout with generously sized rooms, and 2 full bathrooms. While it does need a little TLC, it has great potential and would be an excellent opportunity for a first-time home-buyer or an investor looking to add value. With the right touch, this property could truly shine. Property is being sold AS-IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$947
• − Management: −$947
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$82
• After-tax cash flow: $1,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County
• NCES district ID: 0102310
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,048
• Composite: 27.69/100
• National rank: #6911
• State rank: #56 of 129 in AL

Livability — Guin

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #18358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guin, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,701

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,759 people
• By 2030: 27,834 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 25,974 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 24,129 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 20,179 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 16,341 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 9% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.7) · D 8.8% · R 90.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -81.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.7 2020: R+77.8 2016: R+76.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.62%
• Current HPI: 174.72
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $110,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $120,000 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.