29 Brookside Way · Elizabethtown, NY 12950

$149,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1990 7.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well built home on beautiful 7.4 acres with 2 car garage. Amazing mountain views and Adirondack surroundings. Great price for this large home. Don't pass this one by.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large back deck
• Private acres

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACK DECK
• PRIVATE ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a private maintained gravel road; Lot size approximately 7.41 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Built on foundation (year built not specified)
• Exterior features: Private, secluded, wooded lot; Level terrain; Deck; Front porch; Shed(s); Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Energy Star qualified refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; No cooling system specified
• Interior features: Energy Star qualified refrigerator included; Unfinished full basement with interior and exterior entry; Smoke detectors installed; Private yard
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-401/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#893 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $36,668
• Equity at exit: $89,277

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $111,260
• Equity at exit: $157,786

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12950

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,241/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $143,992

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $9	+0% $-33	+5% $-76	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-96	+0% $-33	+5% $29	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $5	base $-33	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $149,900
17. 2026-04-27
    price $169,900
18. 2026-03-21
    price $189,900
19. 2026-02-09
    price $209,900
20. 2026-01-06
    listed $229,900 Active
21. 2015-11-25
    soldstatus $139,660
22. 2015-11-13
    soldstatus $137,800 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Well built home on beautiful 7.4 acres with 2 car garage. Amazing mountain views and Adirondack surroundings. Great price for this large home. Don't pass this one by.

23. 2014-08-19
    listed $149,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Well built home on beautiful 7.4 acres with 2 car garage. Amazing mountain views and Adirondack surroundings. Great price for this large home. Don't pass this one by.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,241 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,241 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$5,241
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$666
• After-tax cash flow: $265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #17325

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,183
• Population (ZIP): 701

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 10% Iranian 9%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.47%
• Current HPI: 294.9768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $149,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $169,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $189,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $209,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $229,900 ACVMLS
• 2015-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,660 Public Records
• 2015-11-13 Sold (MLS) $137,800 ACVMLS
• 2014-08-19 Listed $149,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,241 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.