426 Milkwood Dr #188 · Redding, CA 96003

$57,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $49k · 17% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

''THE REDWOODS - a 5 STAR SENIOR PARK''. It's rare to find mobile with an enclosed one car garage and an extra parking spot on a spacious corner lot. 3 full bedrooms. Beautiful floors. The office/bedroom is permitted. New roof - 3/26. Quieter section of the Park. Active clubhouse (pool & spa, pool tables, library, bunco, pinochle, poker, etc. ).

Key facts

• Active clubhouse
• Extra parking spot
• Spacious corner lot

Tags

• ENCLOSED ONE CAR GARAGE
• EXTRA PARKING SPOT
• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,290 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.87%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Milkwood Dr #188	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	928 (+10%)	1mo	$57,000	$61	77
1269 Mountain Shadows Blvd	0.21mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	6mo	$52,500	$59	74
1257 Mountain Shadows Blvd	0.22mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	14mo	$40,000	$48	74
4438 Menasha Trl #58	0.25mi	2/1.0	804 (-4%)	9mo	$30,000	$37	70
471 Bitterroot Dr Sp# 42 Dr Unit Redwoods	0.24mi	2/2.0	792 (-6%)	20mo	$65,000	$82	63
1072 Eagle Nest Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0	792 (-6%)	15mo	$110,000	$139	52
1125 Big Bear Ln Ln	0.32mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	22mo	$29,000	$37	52
481 Twin View Blvd #35	0.49mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	5mo	$11,000	$15	45
481 Twin View Blvd #94	0.49mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	8mo	$30,000	$42	43
4509 Big Eagle Ln Ln Unit Mountain Shadow Mobile Estates	0.29mi	2/1.0	718 (-14%)	22mo	$51,000	$71	40
481 Twin View Blvd #40	0.49mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	17mo	$40,000	$56	35
481 Twin View Blvd #82	0.49mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	23mo	$42,000	$58	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $42,559
• Equity at exit: $8,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $117,480
• Equity at exit: $4,928

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $763	+0% $743	+5% $723	+10% $704
Rent	-10% $629	-5% $686	+0% $743	+5% $800	+10% $857
Rate	-1.0pp $772	-0.5pp $758	base $743	+0.5pp $728	+1.0pp $713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	22d	1	0.20mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	15d	1	0.29mi
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	22d	1	0.31mi
335 Buckeye Ter Unit 2 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,399	$1.75	22d	1	0.37mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	15d	1	0.38mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.46mi
130 Masonic Ave Apt 9 Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	45d	1	0.48mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	15d	1	0.51mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	15d	1	0.52mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	15d	8	0.61mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	45d	1	0.62mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	22d	1	0.74mi
333 Boulder Creek Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	15d	1	0.80mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	15d	1	0.85mi
3717 Saint Nicholas Ave Unit 5 Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	45d	1	0.87mi
5576 Mountain View Dr Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	776	$1,200	$1.55	15d	1	0.91mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	45d	1	1.26mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$1,700	$1.33	15d	4	1.36mi
1477 Mishka Ct Apt 3 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,225	$1.53	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $57,000
3. 2026-03-03
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2025-12-08
   price $65,000
5. 2025-09-23
   price $67,000
6. 2025-08-12
   listed $69,000 Active
7. 2025-06-10
   price $69,000
8. 2025-05-13
   price $78,000
9. 2025-04-04
   price $81,000
10. 2025-01-23
    listed $89,000 Active
11. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed
12. 2022-05-24
    historical
13. 2022-04-21
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $8,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $6,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $57,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $60,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $65,000 SAOR
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $67,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $69,000 SAOR
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $69,000 SAOR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $78,000 SAOR
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $81,000 SAOR
• 2025-01-23 Listed $89,000 SAOR
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) $57,000 SAOR
• 2022-05-24 Delisted — SAOR
• 2022-04-21 Listed $60,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2020): $15 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.