4450 Narraganset Trl Unit 95A · Bee Ridge, FL 34233

$184,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Condo public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1976 $437/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Active with Contract. Wake up everyday to the beautiful lake view from your bedroom window and watch gorgeous sunsets from your living room each night. This is a 2 bedrooms 2 bath unit in senior community. Complex offers heated community pool, and is maintenance free, leaving you the free time to enjoy the complex and the Sarasota area or just relax on the screened lanai and enjoy the lake views.

Key facts

• Classic tile floor
• Newer appliances
• Water front

Tags

• WATER FRONT
• FULL WESTERN EXPOSURE
• CLASSIC TILE FLOOR
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS
• UPDATED KITCHENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#370 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashton Elementary School (math 89% / reading 87%, grade A+, #18 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 1,046 students, 28% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $184k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,857
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,328
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34233

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$437
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $278	+0% $226	+5% $174	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $136	+0% $226	+5% $316	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $273	base $226	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $437 · $5,244/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $184,000
3. 2026-02-14
   price $189,000
4. 2026-01-25
   price $199,000
5. 2026-01-25
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2021-03-11
   historical
7. 2021-02-15
   listed $179,500 Active
8. 2013-08-23
   soldstatus $79,000 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Active with Contract. Wake up everyday to the beautiful lake view from your bedroom window and watch gorgeous sunsets from your living room each night. This is a 2 bedrooms 2 bath unit in senior community. Complex offers heated community pool, and is maintenance free, leaving you the free time to enjoy the complex and the Sarasota area or just relax on the screened lanai and enjoy the lake views.

9. 2013-06-12
   listed $79,500 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Active with Contract. Wake up everyday to the beautiful lake view from your bedroom window and watch gorgeous sunsets from your living room each night. This is a 2 bedrooms 2 bath unit in senior community. Complex offers heated community pool, and is maintenance free, leaving you the free time to enjoy the complex and the Sarasota area or just relax on the screened lanai and enjoy the lake views.

10. 2007-07-27
    soldstatus $138,000
11. 2007-02-16
    soldstatus $138,000
12. 2006-07-06
    listed $138,000
13. 1996-12-05
    soldstatus $56,000
14. 1989-03-03
    soldstatus $56,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − HOA: −$5,244
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$7
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2
• After-tax cash flow: $2,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bee Ridge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #6494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bee Ridge, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 18,875
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,123
• Household income: $75,394
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.79%
• Current HPI: 258.6836
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.35%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+223.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-15 Listed $179,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-12 Listed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-16 Sold (MLS) $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-06 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.