21347 Rachel Manor Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,838 sqft lot $175/sqft · 23% below area Est $324k · 23% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND-NEW, stunning single-story home with open entertaining areas, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, attached two-car garage and ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED! This spacious home at Bauer Landing is move-in ready and features a chef-ready kitchen with polished granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry and stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, including a refrigerator and built-in microwave. Beautiful archways encircle the dining room located at the heart of the home. The master suite showcases a generously sized bathroom and walk-in closet. In addition to well-crafted homes, Bauer Landing offers residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 3.5-acre park with playgrounds, a picnic ramada and open recreation lawn.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Inviting family room
• Casual dining area

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• 1-STORY LIFESTYLE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM
• BAR SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Bauer Landing HOA (annual association fee approx. $594); Association amenities include dog park, picnic area, playground, park and trails; Association fee includes recreation facilities; Community has curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Full ownership; Living area approx. 1,426
• Construction: Built in 2021; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Fence; Cul-de-sac lot; Backs to greenbelt/park; Greenbelt and subdivision nearby; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 13x12; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10x9; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10x9; Bedrooms possible: 3
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Water softener (owned); Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor) — approx. 8x3

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,664 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,148
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -22.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+6%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	71
21118 Baltic Rain Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+2%)	4mo	$225,000	$155	71
22706 Tabberts Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$157	67
21015 Echo Manor Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	7mo	$240,000	$159	66
20719 Nala Bear Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-1%)	11mo	$234,000	$165	66
22530 Threefold Ridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+10%)	1mo	$249,700	$158	58
21022 Solstice Point Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+12%)	10mo	$249,900	$157	58
22418 Threefold Ridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+10%)	7mo	$229,000	$145	57
22718 Steel Blue Jaybird Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+4%)	14mo	$225,000	$151	57
21402 Timberland Field Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+12%)	11mo	$259,500	$163	56
20818 Bastion Settle Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,576 (+10%)	6mo	$248,000	$157	53
20730 Solstice Point Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+12%)	7mo	$249,000	$156	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-68,480
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-110,699
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,117/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,500

Max offer price $188,664

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	2d	1	0.38mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	2d	1	0.56mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	1d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Pending 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   status $250,000 Pending 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $250,000 Active 1016-char remark
13. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus Sold 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    BRAND-NEW, stunning single-story home with open entertaining areas, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, attached two-car garage and ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED! This spacious home at Bauer Landing is move-in ready and features a chef-ready kitchen with polished granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry and stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, including a refrigerator and built-in microwave. Beautiful archways encircle the dining room located at the heart of the home. The master suite showcases a generously sized bathroom and walk-in closet. In addition to well-crafted homes, Bauer Landing offers residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 3.5-acre park with playgrounds, a picnic ramada and open recreation lawn.

14. 2021-11-09
    status Pending 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    BRAND-NEW, stunning single-story home with open entertaining areas, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, attached two-car garage and ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED! This spacious home at Bauer Landing is move-in ready and features a chef-ready kitchen with polished granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry and stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, including a refrigerator and built-in microwave. Beautiful archways encircle the dining room located at the heart of the home. The master suite showcases a generously sized bathroom and walk-in closet. In addition to well-crafted homes, Bauer Landing offers residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 3.5-acre park with playgrounds, a picnic ramada and open recreation lawn.

15. 2021-11-09
    listed $265,900 Active 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    BRAND-NEW, stunning single-story home with open entertaining areas, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, attached two-car garage and ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED! This spacious home at Bauer Landing is move-in ready and features a chef-ready kitchen with polished granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry and stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, including a refrigerator and built-in microwave. Beautiful archways encircle the dining room located at the heart of the home. The master suite showcases a generously sized bathroom and walk-in closet. In addition to well-crafted homes, Bauer Landing offers residents incredible on-site amenities, including a 3.5-acre park with playgrounds, a picnic ramada and open recreation lawn.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,117 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,117 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,117
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with cosmetic updates that would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Updates the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Updates the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Listed $265,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+73.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,117 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.