9523 - 9525 Cody Way · Stockton, CA 95209

$569,000

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 2,242 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1979 6,499 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Good Investment! In good condition and priced below market. Each unit has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2 car garage. Tenants pay all utilities. Section 8. No residential behind the duplex. Make offer subject to viewing. Won't last long!

Key facts

• Strong rental appeal
• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE GARAGE PARKING
• STRONG RENTAL APPEAL
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with space for 4 vehicles (total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No irrigation
• Home design: Duplex (residential income/apartments); Built in 1979; Single-story; Address: 9523-9525 Cody Way, Stockton, CA 95209
• Construction: Year built 1979
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.15 acres; No special lot features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; One-story layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $569k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $81/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $447k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,466/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 719% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($560k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 28350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $415k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $446,600 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-82,656
• Equity at exit: $84,840

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-61,848
• Equity at exit: $49,197

Cash invested: $159,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95209

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 21.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,984
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,741/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$938
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,261

Max offer price $569,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $323	+0% $162	+5% $1	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-14	+0% $162	+5% $338	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $307	base $162	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-135

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,466
Total (2 units)			$4,466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,250
• Closing costs: $17,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $569,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $569,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $569,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $569,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 578-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $569,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,324 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,583/yr (+$215/mo · 148.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,741
• − Insurance: −$2,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,287
• − Management: −$4,287
• − Depreciation: −$16,553
• Taxable loss: −$7,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,919
• After-tax cash flow: $3,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,409
• Household income: $108,675
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 25% Two or more races 23% Asian 22% Black 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -430.80%
• Current HPI: 259.8452
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-95.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-11 Rental Removed $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-24 Rental Removed $1,995 RENTLY
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $1,995 RENTLY
• 2024-02-15 Listed for Rent $2,000 RENTLY
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $415,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-23 Sold (MLS) $415,000 MLSListings
• 2005-10-04 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-09-20 Listed $415,000 MLSListings
• 1989-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 1981-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,741 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.