1507 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home located in Alonda Villa, a 55+ community. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, large living room, separate dining room with built in hutch, family room, and a bright and cheery kitchen. Main bedroom features built in desk/dressing area, and attached 3/4 bath. All new carpets and some fresh paint makes this home light and bright! Covered front patio is large enough for entertaining. Back features carport and large storage/hobby shed. Easy care mature landscaping with room for the gardener's personal touches. Efficient furnace and heat pump will keep you comfy year round. Bring your ideas and make this sweet home your own! You'll love this tranquil setting off the beaten p

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• Covered front patio
• Attached bath

Tags

• BUILT IN HUTCH
• BUILT IN DESK
• ATTACHED BATH
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $35k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 190.11%
• DSCR: 9.46
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,880
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1507 Alonda Ln NE	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	99
1414 Alonda Ln NE	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,247 (-0%)	17mo	$60,000	$48	85
1704 Alonda Ln NE	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	10mo	$140,000	$108	84
2204 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$80,000	$60	83
1350 Alonda Ln NE	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$50,000	$43	77
1519 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$60,000	$52	77
2309 Alonda Ln NE	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$73,000	$54	74
2206 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	16mo	$159,000	$118	70
2003 Alonda Ln NE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	19mo	$99,000	$74	68
2310 Alonda Ln NE	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,218 (-2%)	24mo	$127,000	$104	66
1361 Alonda Ln NE	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	23mo	$149,500	$111	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.69×
• Total profit: $94,922
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.15×
• Total profit: $217,106
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $131/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $1,553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $265

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	43d	1	0.26mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	43d	1	0.30mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,165	$2.46	13d	258	0.55mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	43d	1	0.64mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,106	$2.33	13d	26	0.71mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	13d	7	0.76mi
522 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	13d	6	0.82mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	13d	5	0.98mi
801 Lilly Rd NE Apt 123 Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	762	$1,700	$2.23	43d	1	1.04mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,010	$2.05	13d	14	1.12mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	21d	1	1.14mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	21d	1	1.14mi
501 Franz Anderson Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,598	$2.22	13d	3	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $35,000
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $39,999 Active
4. 2010-06-24
   soldstatus $22,500 Sold
5. 2010-06-14
   status Pending
6. 2010-06-14
   historical
7. 2009-12-08
   listed $25,000 Active
8. 2005-01-27
   soldstatus $21,000
9. 2004-09-10
   listed $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $131 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 161.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$131
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $19,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,606
• After-tax cash flow: $14,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+62.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $39,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-24 Sold (MLS) $22,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-08 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-27 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-10 Listed $21,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2018): $131 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.