Cedar Plan · South Mills, NC 27976

$409,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily · 298 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Cedar single-family home blends function and elegance. Enter the foyer and head to the great room, which flows effortlessly into the gourmet kitchen with island, and the dining area. Beyond that, a hall leads to a powder room and flex space that can be converted into a home office, hobby room, or extra play space. Upstairs 3 of the 4 bedrooms boast walk-in closets. Your luxurious owner's suite features lots of living space, a huge walk-in closet, and a double vanity bath. The Cedar is must-see. Sc

Key facts

• Flex space
• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DOUBLE VANITY BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $409,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Central air
• Home design: Plan named Cedar; New construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1903; Single-family plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

🏗️ New construction. The $409,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $397,727.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden Intermediate (math 50% / reading 61%, grade B-, #76 of 475 statewide, top 16%, 440 students, 24% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $330,000 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,727
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Myrtle Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	1mo	$413,125	$217	98
118 Jasmine Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	1mo	$400,000	$210	75
108 Jasmine Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	2mo	$394,725	$207	75
125 Pampas St	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,903 (0%)	3mo	$401,425	$211	70
110 Jasmine Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,903 (0%)	6mo	$398,365	$209	69
127 Pampas St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+0%)	5mo	$398,385	$209	65
131 Pampas St	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,940 (+2%)	5mo	$380,870	$196	64
205 Myrtle Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,680 (-12%)	4mo	$375,875	$224	53
206 Myrtle Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,658 (-13%)	3mo	$377,715	$228	50
215 Myrtle Ln	0.21mi	5/5.5 (+1)	2,176 (+14%)	3mo	$416,990	$192	47
235 Myrtle Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,176 (+14%)	6mo	$426,705	$196	47
204 Spencers Ave	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (+14%)	3mo	$285,000	$132	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-27,863
• Equity at exit: $107,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $8,448
• Equity at exit: $123,526

Cash invested: $111,364 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27976

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,086
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,966/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,479

Max offer price $377,237

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $-4	+0% $-142	+5% $-279	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-272	+0% $-142	+5% $-11	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-40	base $-142	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,432
• Closing costs: $11,932
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Pampas ST South Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	1903	$3,300	$1.73	3d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $409,990 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $409,990 Active 297 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,279
• − Property taxes: −$5,966
• − Insurance: −$1,989
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$11,570
• Taxable loss: −$8,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700600
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,622
• Composite: 51.97/100
• National rank: #1643
• State rank: #29 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #22229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Mills, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,237

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,980 people
• By 2030: 11,246 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,562 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 11,572 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 11,450 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 10,648 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.2% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 174.2102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B