Denise Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$309,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 254 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our impressive two-story Denise floorplan at Eastern Wells in Jarrell, Texas. With 6-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home featuring approximately 2,349 square feet of living space. Step into the Denise floor plan and experience thoughtfully designed living where comfort meets style. The open-concept main level creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere by seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and family areas-perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying everyday moments together. At the heart of the home, the modern kitchen features abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a spacious central island ideal for cooking, gathering, and conversation. Tucked away is the private primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, offering a peaceful retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a spa-inspired ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you'll find a versatile game room, secondary bedrooms, and a full bathroom-providing ample space for family members, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, convenient half bath, and thoughtfully designed storage throughout the home enhance everyday living. With its open living spaces, smart layout, and modern finishes, the Denise floor plan delivers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and contemporary design. Contact us today to learn more about the Denise floor plan!

Key facts

• Two story
• Modern kitchen
• Large walk in closet

Tags

• TWO STORY
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• SPA INSPIRED ENSUITE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,861.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 123d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,864 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,861
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -6.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
168 Baby Calf Roping Rd	0.25mi	6/2.5	2,349 (0%)	1mo	$291,815	$124	87
176 Baby Calf Roping Rd	0.23mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,252 (-4%)	4mo	$281,315	$125	74
132 Baby Calf Roping Rd	0.33mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,252 (-4%)	1mo	$281,195	$125	72
608 Timbo Dr	0.50mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-1%)	5mo	$324,990	$139	66
254 Boatright Blvd	0.11mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,588 (+10%)	7mo	$356,900	$138	63
216 Sleep Holw	0.30mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,533 (+8%)	3mo	$354,440	$140	62
172 Wind Hl	0.31mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,533 (+8%)	3mo	$337,900	$133	61
133 Baby Calf Roping Rd	0.32mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,129 (-9%)	2mo	$278,515	$131	61
105 Brunswick Ln	0.60mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,578 (+10%)	1mo	$250,000	$97	50
512 Fox Glen Trl	0.51mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,578 (+10%)	17mo	$318,000	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-96,449
• Equity at exit: $49,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-155,430
• Equity at exit: $28,607

Cash invested: $92,641 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,295 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,735
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,963/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,894

Max offer price $247,906

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-459	+0% $-573	+5% $-688	+10% $-802
Rent	-10% $-745	-5% $-659	+0% $-573	+5% $-488	+10% $-402
Rate	-1.0pp $-407	-0.5pp $-489	base $-573	+0.5pp $-659	+1.0pp $-746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,715
• Closing costs: $9,926
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Scarborough Bnd Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,015	$0.79	55d	1	0.26mi
157 Scarborough Bnd Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,925	$0.76	164d	1	0.28mi
217 Wincanton Ln Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,075	$0.82	87d	1	0.35mi
137 Fox Glen Trl Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,015	$0.79	10d	1	0.38mi
117 Fox Glen Trl Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,925	$0.76	164d	1	0.41mi
109 Fox Glen Trl Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,925	$0.76	164d	1	0.42mi
417 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2250	$2,250	$1.00	10d	1	0.45mi
140 Maywood Ln Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,800	$0.71	158d	1	0.49mi
124 Maywood Ln Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,050	$0.81	153d	1	0.50mi
1001 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	123d	1	0.60mi
1004 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,800	$0.71	164d	1	0.62mi
1004 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,800	$0.71	184d	1	0.62mi
172 Allington Cir Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2578	$1,800	$0.70	133d	1	0.74mi
172 Allington Cir Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2578	$1,800	$0.70	29d	1	0.74mi
172 Allington Cir Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2578	$1,800	$0.70	38d	1	0.74mi
325 Crescent Park Dr Jarrell, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,895	$0.75	69d	1	0.76mi
101 W Luna Blue Ln Jarrell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1313	$3,970	$3.02	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $309,990 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $309,990 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $309,990 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $309,990 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 239 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 238 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 237 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 236 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 235 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 234 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 233 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 232 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 231 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 230 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 229 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 228 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 227 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 226 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 225 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 224 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 223 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 222 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 221 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 220 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 219 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 218 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 217 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 216 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 215 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 214 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 213 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 212 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $309,990 Active 210 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 209 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 208 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 207 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 206 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 205 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 204 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 203 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,533
• − Property taxes: −$4,963
• − Insurance: −$1,654
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$9,625
• Taxable loss: −$12,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Jarrell, Texas, is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required and potential for further value increases through cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $309,990 Zillow