3994 Gum Branch Ct NE · Navassa, NC 28451

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2000 0.54 ac lot Est $292k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home located only a short distance from Wilmington. This home was in the process of having upgrades that are incomplete. Perfect oppurtunity for you to do it your way! Just over one half acre of land and a chain link fence in the back. Home is sold as is, where is.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; No utilities specified beyond defaults
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story / One level; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing around back yard; Shingle roof; No additional exterior features or patios listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedrooms and other rooms combined)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Has view; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Navassa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#141 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #682 of 1,410 statewide, top 49%, 675 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $199k implies a 310% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,032
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8947 Hooper Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,674 (-3%)	7mo	$257,500	$154	60
8956 Black Chestnut Dr NE	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	15mo	$245,000	$156	46
4041 W Red Oak Dr NE	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-13%)	18mo	$269,900	$179	40
8932 Black Chestnut Dr NE	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	10mo	$255,000	$169	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,113
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,480
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $614	-5% $558	+0% $501	+5% $445	+10% $389
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $417	+0% $501	+5% $586	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $602	-0.5pp $552	base $501	+0.5pp $450	+1.0pp $397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$937/yr (+$78/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $2,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$692
• After-tax cash flow: $5,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Navassa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #8091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1049.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+289.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2008-10-22 Sold (MLS) $48,500 Hive MLS
• 2008-05-07 Listed $51,100 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $695 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.