296 Liberty St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$415,000

9 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,869 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1900 1,880 sqft lot $145/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

A very unique offering consisting of renovated 5 Bedroom 2 Bath unit and renovated 3 Bedroom 2 Bath unit. Close to stores, restaurants, cafes and parks. Walking distance to stores and restaurants on Broadway, Liberty, Washington's Headquarters, the waterfront and the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry. Close to Dawning Park, Mount Saint Mary College and Montefiore St. Luke's Hospital. This one isn't going to last, call now.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to restaurants
• Renovated unit

Tags

• RENOVATED UNIT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO STORES
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $479/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $415k).
• Recommended offer: $365k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,228/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $415k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.84%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $834,519
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -50.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163 Chambers St	0.07mi	9/4.0	2,880 (+0%)	7mo	$585,920	$203	90
55 Carpenter Ave	0.50mi	8/4.0 (-1)	3,000 (+5%)	9mo	$435,000	$145	57
27 Clark St	0.57mi	8/3.0 (-1)	2,724 (-5%)	19mo	$410,000	$151	40
67 William St	0.70mi	9/3.0	2,640 (-8%)	19mo	$420,000	$159	34
47 Carpenter Ave	0.52mi	8/3.0 (-1)	3,234 (+13%)	23mo	$460,000	$142	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $10,225
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $71,882
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$1,134 /mo · $13,609/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,308
• Net cashflow: $1,437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,409

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 72%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$6,228
Total (3 units)			$6,228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $415,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $415,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $415,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $415,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    A very unique offering consisting of renovated 5 Bedroom 2 Bath unit and renovated 3 Bedroom 2 Bath unit. Close to stores, restaurants, cafes and parks. Walking distance to stores and restaurants on Broadway, Liberty, Washington's Headquarters, the waterfront and the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry. Close to Dawning Park, Mount Saint Mary College and Montefiore St. Luke's Hospital. This one isn't going to last, call now.

17. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus $160,256
18. 2017-11-28
    soldstatus $535,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,609 · $1,134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,609 · $1,134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$13,609
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,979
• − Management: −$5,979
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable income: $11,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,826
• After-tax cash flow: $14,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $415,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $160,256 Public Records
• 2017-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $535,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,609 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.