Pickens Plan · Ludowici, GA 31316

$290,300

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,431 sqft · SingleFamily · 321 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

Key facts

• Eating area
• Primary bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• EATING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $290,300 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,890.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $226,507 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,890
• List price: $290,300
• Delta: -7.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
287 Palmetto Way NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,436 (+0%)	7mo	$326,900	$134	89
44 Goosberry Ct NE	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,436 (+0%)	0mo	$363,515	$149	84
45 Goosberry Ct NE	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,440 (+0%)	1mo	$318,292	$130	82
392 Palmetto Way NE	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,429 (-0%)	7mo	$330,747	$136	80
419 Palmetto Way NE	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,440 (+0%)	8mo	$327,072	$134	77
335 Palmetto Way NE	0.11mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,255 (-7%)	6mo	$313,710	$139	73
323 Palmetto Way NE	0.23mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,519 (+4%)	8mo	$333,900	$133	70
20 Teal Trail Trl NE	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,177 (-10%)	7mo	$318,000	$146	68
340 Palmetto Way NE	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,175 (-10%)	4mo	$312,844	$144	67
95 Cattle Fence Dr NE	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,489 (+2%)	6mo	$365,000	$147	59
11 Greenbriar St NE	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,584 (+6%)	1mo	$344,900	$133	57
418 Palmetto Way NE	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,177 (-10%)	8mo	$318,607	$146	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-15,845
• Equity at exit: $109,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,162
• Equity at exit: $147,883

Cash invested: $87,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,646
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,708/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,746

Max offer price $258,930

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-271	+0% $-380	+5% $-488	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-469	+0% $-380	+5% $-290	+10% $-201
Rate	-1.0pp $-222	-0.5pp $-300	base $-380	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,472
• Closing costs: $9,417
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Enclave Way NE Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	2286	$2,175	$0.95	45d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,300 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,300 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $290,300 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $290,300 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $287,300 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $287,300 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $287,300 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $287,300 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-03-17
   price $287,300 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

10. 2026-01-29
    status Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

11. 2026-01-29
    price $285,300 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

12. 2025-12-24
    historical 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

13. 2025-12-21
    status Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

14. 2025-12-08
    historical 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

15. 2025-10-12
    status Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

16. 2025-10-10
    historical 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

17. 2025-07-01
    price $282,300 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

18. 2025-06-23
    status Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

19. 2025-06-17
    historical 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

20. 2025-06-14
    status Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

21. 2025-05-27
    historical 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

22. 2025-05-09
    listed $280,300 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This two-story home offers four bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. A flex space is available just inside the front door. An open kitchen, eat-in area, and great room can be expanded even further if you add a back porch. The primary bedroom, which can have a vaulted ceiling, leads to the primary bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Each bedroom upstairs also has a walk-in closet, and they share another full bathroom. In addition, the second floor contains a loft space and an option for a storage room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,583
• − Property taxes: −$4,708
• − Insurance: −$1,569
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$9,131
• Taxable loss: −$10,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $287,300 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $285,300 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-12 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-10 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $282,300 Zillow
• 2025-06-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-09 Listed $280,300 Zillow