234 Grayson Elm Pass · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$449,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 5,619 sqft lot $166/sqft · 10% below area Est $500k · 10% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this stunning new construction home at 234 Grayson Elm Pass in Dripping Springs, offering exceptional design and thoughtful craftsmanship by M/I Homes. This spacious 2-story home features 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering an abundance of room to make this home truly your own. Key features include: 5 bedrooms with the owner's bedroom on the main level 4 full bathrooms A covered patio A game room on the upper level 2,716 square feet of living space Open-concept living areas New construction by M/I Homes Quality design throughout The open-concept living space creates seamless flow between gathering areas, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Quality design elements are showcased throughout this thoughtfully planned home, reflecting careful attention to detail and superior construction standards. The Heritage community provides an ideal setting with excellent access to parks and recreational opportunities. The area's natural beauty and well-planned development create an attractive environment for families seeking quality living spaces. This new construction home represents an opportunity to enjoy contemporary living with the peace of mind that comes with builder warranties and energy-efficient systems. The thoughtful design maximizes both functionality and comfort, making this an excellent choice for discerning buyers who appreciate quality construction and intelligent space planning. Contact our. .. MLS# 8408083

Key facts

• Upgraded doors
• 2 story layout
• Ample counter space

Tags

• 2 STORY LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• UPGRADED DOORS
• WALKABLE TO NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• POOL ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.2% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 754 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,811 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $500,402
• List price: $449,990
• Delta: -10.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Bishop Wood Rd	0.14mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,625 (-3%)	2mo	$544,990	$208	79
340 Big Banyan Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,924 (+8%)	1mo	$599,990	$205	75
201 Bishop Wood Rd	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,915 (+7%)	2mo	$569,990	$196	72
149 Comfort Maple Ln	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,987 (+10%)	2mo	$639,000	$214	70
296 Bishop Wood Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,434 (-10%)	0mo	$504,990	$207	66
326 Bishop Wood Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,434 (-10%)	2mo	$554,990	$228	66
136 Bishop Wood Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,441 (-10%)	2mo	$499,990	$205	65
410 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,903 (+7%)	1mo	$594,130	$205	64
200 Bishop Wood Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,401 (-12%)	3mo	$509,900	$212	60
200 Norway Spruce St	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,441 (-10%)	2mo	$524,990	$215	58
380 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,495 (-8%)	1mo	$536,393	$215	58
344 Milkwood Ter	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,362 (-13%)	1mo	$489,985	$207	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-110,600
• Equity at exit: $67,095

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-155,399
• Equity at exit: $38,907

Cash invested: $125,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 754
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,000

Max offer price $373,215

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,498
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Big Banyan Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.12mi
358 Darley Oak Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2543	$3,250	$1.28	18d	1	0.16mi
785 Sue Peaks Loop Dripping Springs, TX	5.0	3.0	2585	$3,500	$1.35	18d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $449,990 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,990 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,990 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,990 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   price $449,990 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $454,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $454,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $454,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $454,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $454,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,990 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,990 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,990 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $469,990 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    This stunning 5 bed/ 4 bath home is a must see! The first floor features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the main floor, and 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms upstairs. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 2-story layout that exudes comfort and airiness. The heart of this home is the beautifully designed kitchen, a true chef's delight. With ample counter space, sleek cabinetry, and modern appliances, this kitchen is perfect for culinary adventures or casual dining. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining guests or relaxing with family. Abundant natural light floods the home, adding warmth and charm to every corner. All doors on the first floor have been upgraded to 8ft. This home is walkable to the neighborhood pocket park and the pool! Contact us today to learn more about the Balitmore plan!

15. 2026-04-21
    price $469,990 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    This stunning 5 bed/ 4 bath home is a must see! The first floor features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the main floor, and 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms upstairs. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 2-story layout that exudes comfort and airiness. The heart of this home is the beautifully designed kitchen, a true chef's delight. With ample counter space, sleek cabinetry, and modern appliances, this kitchen is perfect for culinary adventures or casual dining. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining guests or relaxing with family. Abundant natural light floods the home, adding warmth and charm to every corner. All doors on the first floor have been upgraded to 8ft. This home is walkable to the neighborhood pocket park and the pool! Contact us today to learn more about the Balitmore plan!

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $489,990 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    This stunning 5 bed/ 4 bath home is a must see! The first floor features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the main floor, and 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms upstairs. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 2-story layout that exudes comfort and airiness. The heart of this home is the beautifully designed kitchen, a true chef's delight. With ample counter space, sleek cabinetry, and modern appliances, this kitchen is perfect for culinary adventures or casual dining. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the kitchen to the living area, creating an ideal space for entertaining guests or relaxing with family. Abundant natural light floods the home, adding warmth and charm to every corner. All doors on the first floor have been upgraded to 8ft. This home is walkable to the neighborhood pocket park and the pool! Contact us today to learn more about the Balitmore plan!

17. 2026-03-03
    price $489,990 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1465 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 234 Grayson Elm Pass in Dripping Springs, offering exceptional design and thoughtful craftsmanship by M/I Homes. This spacious 2-story home features 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering an abundance of room to make this home truly your own. Key features include: 5 bedrooms with the owner's bedroom on the main level 4 full bathrooms A covered patio A game room on the upper level 2,716 square feet of living space Open-concept living areas New construction by M/I Homes Quality design throughout The open-concept living space creates seamless flow between gathering areas, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Quality design elements are showcased throughout this thoughtfully planned home, reflecting careful attention to detail and superior construction standards. The Heritage community provides an ideal setting with excellent access to parks and recreational opportunities. The area's natural beauty and well-planned development create an attractive environment for families seeking quality living spaces. This new construction home represents an opportunity to enjoy contemporary living with the peace of mind that comes with builder warranties and energy-efficient systems. The thoughtful design maximizes both functionality and comfort, making this an excellent choice for discerning buyers who appreciate quality construction and intelligent space planning. Contact our. .. MLS# 8408083

18. 2026-01-27
    price $496,990 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1465 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 234 Grayson Elm Pass in Dripping Springs, offering exceptional design and thoughtful craftsmanship by M/I Homes. This spacious 2-story home features 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering an abundance of room to make this home truly your own. Key features include: 5 bedrooms with the owner's bedroom on the main level 4 full bathrooms A covered patio A game room on the upper level 2,716 square feet of living space Open-concept living areas New construction by M/I Homes Quality design throughout The open-concept living space creates seamless flow between gathering areas, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Quality design elements are showcased throughout this thoughtfully planned home, reflecting careful attention to detail and superior construction standards. The Heritage community provides an ideal setting with excellent access to parks and recreational opportunities. The area's natural beauty and well-planned development create an attractive environment for families seeking quality living spaces. This new construction home represents an opportunity to enjoy contemporary living with the peace of mind that comes with builder warranties and energy-efficient systems. The thoughtful design maximizes both functionality and comfort, making this an excellent choice for discerning buyers who appreciate quality construction and intelligent space planning. Contact our. .. MLS# 8408083

19. 2026-01-24
    price $497,190 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1465 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 234 Grayson Elm Pass in Dripping Springs, offering exceptional design and thoughtful craftsmanship by M/I Homes. This spacious 2-story home features 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering an abundance of room to make this home truly your own. Key features include: 5 bedrooms with the owner's bedroom on the main level 4 full bathrooms A covered patio A game room on the upper level 2,716 square feet of living space Open-concept living areas New construction by M/I Homes Quality design throughout The open-concept living space creates seamless flow between gathering areas, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Quality design elements are showcased throughout this thoughtfully planned home, reflecting careful attention to detail and superior construction standards. The Heritage community provides an ideal setting with excellent access to parks and recreational opportunities. The area's natural beauty and well-planned development create an attractive environment for families seeking quality living spaces. This new construction home represents an opportunity to enjoy contemporary living with the peace of mind that comes with builder warranties and energy-efficient systems. The thoughtful design maximizes both functionality and comfort, making this an excellent choice for discerning buyers who appreciate quality construction and intelligent space planning. Contact our. .. MLS# 8408083

20. 2026-01-23
    listed $488,140 Active 1465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1465 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 234 Grayson Elm Pass in Dripping Springs, offering exceptional design and thoughtful craftsmanship by M/I Homes. This spacious 2-story home features 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering an abundance of room to make this home truly your own. Key features include: 5 bedrooms with the owner's bedroom on the main level 4 full bathrooms A covered patio A game room on the upper level 2,716 square feet of living space Open-concept living areas New construction by M/I Homes Quality design throughout The open-concept living space creates seamless flow between gathering areas, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Quality design elements are showcased throughout this thoughtfully planned home, reflecting careful attention to detail and superior construction standards. The Heritage community provides an ideal setting with excellent access to parks and recreational opportunities. The area's natural beauty and well-planned development create an attractive environment for families seeking quality living spaces. This new construction home represents an opportunity to enjoy contemporary living with the peace of mind that comes with builder warranties and energy-efficient systems. The thoughtful design maximizes both functionality and comfort, making this an excellent choice for discerning buyers who appreciate quality construction and intelligent space planning. Contact our. .. MLS# 8408083

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,206
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,195
• − Management: −$3,195
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$14,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $469,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $469,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $489,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $489,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $496,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $497,190 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Listed $488,140 Zillow