7501 Magnolia Dr · Commercial, NJ 08332

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1995 10,001 sqft lot $207/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Will have more information soon

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($651/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commercial Township School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,303 statewide, top 84%, 470 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $200k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,782
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -3.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7210 Dove Pl	0.37mi	3/1.0	988 (+2%)	1mo	$123,000	$124	74
115 Robin Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	960 (-1%)	11mo	$177,000	$184	73
7500 Whittier Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	924 (-4%)	17mo	$46,000	$50	69
405 Gooseberry Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+7%)	16mo	$280,000	$269	66
12 Pleasantview Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	907 (-6%)	2mo	$236,000	$260	66
420 Doe Pl	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+9%)	7mo	$225,000	$213	65
7178 Keron Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+1%)	3mo	$170,000	$173	63
232 Jute Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	952 (-2%)	13mo	$187,500	$197	62
428 Quail Rd	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	942 (-3%)	14mo	$215,000	$228	61
421 Evergreen Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+7%)	13mo	$200,000	$192	58
510 Mistle Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+10%)	14mo	$66,000	$62	57
7737 Raymond Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	896 (-7%)	7mo	$191,999	$214	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,871
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,134
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,454/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $111	+0% $54	+5% $-2	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-19	+0% $54	+5% $128	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $105	base $54	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7357 William Ave Millville, NJ	2.0	1.0	938	$1,550	$1.65	45d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-01-14
    listed $200,000 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Will have more information soon

18. 2003-11-19
    soldstatus $68,000
19. 2003-11-18
    soldstatus $68,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

20. 2003-11-18
    soldstatus $68,000

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

21. 2003-10-15
    historical 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

22. 2003-10-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

23. 2003-09-03
    listed $68,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

24. 2003-09-03
    listed $69,900

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    This home is ready for a family to call their own. Home has fenced in yard, ceiling fans, washer and a dryer. Call today to see the home and start the process of owning your own home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,217 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$763/yr (+$64/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,454
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $1,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Commercial

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $200,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2003-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-18 Sold (MLS) $68,000 SJSRMLS
• 2003-11-18 Sold (MLS) $68,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-10-15 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2003-10-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-09-03 Listed $69,900 SJSRMLS
• 2003-09-03 Listed $68,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,454 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.