3164 E Tonto Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$825,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2006 10,000 sqft lot $200/sqft · at area comps Est $824k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

Key facts

• Two dishwashers
• Extra storage
• Gorgeous kitchen

Tags

• ATTACHED CASITA
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• LARGE ISLAND
• EXTRA STORAGE
• TWO DISHWASHERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $559k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $444k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $543k; list at $825k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $443,952 (46.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $824,218
• List price: $825,000
• Delta: 0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5880 S Joslyn Ln	0.11mi	5/3.5 (-1)	4,115 (0%)	18mo	$825,000	$200	73
3353 E Blue Ridge Way	0.48mi	5/4.0 (-1)	4,120 (+0%)	14mo	$765,000	$186	61
3169 E Eleana Ln	0.09mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,618 (-12%)	12mo	$859,900	$238	59
5892 S Joslyn Ln	0.11mi	6/3.5	3,546 (-14%)	21mo	$825,000	$233	52
5651 S Fawn Ave	0.58mi	5/4.5 (-1)	4,289 (+4%)	23mo	$940,000	$219	40
3294 E Blue Ridge Way	0.42mi	5/2.5 (-1)	3,567 (-13%)	16mo	$780,000	$219	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $268,624
• Equity at exit: $647,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $864,150
• Equity at exit: $1,304,831

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,182/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$932
• Net cashflow: $-1,508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,349

Max offer price $558,585

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3484 E Coconino Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2928	$3,400	$1.16	15d	1	0.37mi
3436 E Casa Mader Dr Gilbert, AZ	6.0	4.5	4120	$3,900	$0.95	43d	1	0.49mi
3355 E Indigo St Gilbert, AZ	6.0	5.0	4036	$6,900	$1.71	2d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $825,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $825,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $825,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $825,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $825,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $825,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $825,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $825,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $825,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $825,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $825,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $825,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $825,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $825,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $825,000 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

16. 2026-04-18
    price $840,000 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

17. 2026-04-13
    price $849,900 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $854,900 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

19. 2026-03-28
    listed $864,900 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Are you looking for multi-generation living or maybe separate guest quarters? If so, then this is the home for you as it comes with an est. 550 sq. ft. attached casita. As you enter the courtyard, you will fall in love with the oasis that this home provides. From the moment you enter the home, you will notice how light and bright it is including a gorgeous kitchen that features a gas stove, large island, plenty of extra storage, not one but two dishwashers and granite countertops. Head upstairs to the primary bedroom retreat, complete with its own huge sitting area, walk-in-closet, and jetted tub for pure relaxation. Whether you're relaxing in the courtyard or in the diving pool, you'll be able to enjoy the glorious outdoor lifestyle that comes with living in AZ. Solar is owned!

20. 2023-09-18
    historical
21. 2023-09-15
    listed $849,900 Active
22. 2020-06-25
    soldstatus $543,000 Closed
23. 2020-06-25
    soldstatus $543,000
24. 2020-05-25
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
25. 2020-05-17
    price $542,000
26. 2020-05-09
    price $549,000
27. 2020-05-04
    price $558,800
28. 2020-04-11
    listed $570,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,445 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,263/yr (+$189/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$3,182
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,262
• − Management: −$4,262
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable loss: −$33,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+44.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $825,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $840,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $849,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $854,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $864,900 ARMLS
• 2023-09-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed $849,900 ARMLS
• 2020-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $543,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-25 Sold (MLS) $543,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-25 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-05-17 Price Changed $542,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Price Changed $549,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-04 Price Changed $558,800 ARMLS
• 2020-04-11 Listed $570,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,182 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.