28463 Memory Ln · Winchester, CA 92596

$615,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,227 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2022 8,712 sqft lot Est $621k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to NEW CONSTRUCTION at Pleasant Valley Ranch in Winchester! This beautiful Plan 2239 two-story home features a Hacienda façade with a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a LARGE loft area and laundry room with EXTRA STORAGE room. The Island Kitchen includes Whirlpool stainless steel gas cooktop and oven, microwave, dishwasher, QUARTZ counter tops with White shaker-styled cabinetry and Rexford DESIGNER luxury vinyl plank and carpet flooring throughout. Also, a direct access 2-car garage PRE-PLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. Pleasant Valley Ranch is situated close to neighborhood parks, shopping and freeway access. We anticipate a December 2022 move-in. .. Welcome Home!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 462190009; Living area and lot size per assessor data; Lot roughly 6,500–9,999 sq ft (lot size from assessor)
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: House; Two-story; No attached accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: No pool; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Two levels; Front entry; Entry at main level; Bonus room; Loft; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $616k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-686 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $495k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $467k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $467k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $467,335 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $621,333
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28410 Pinon Ct	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,227 (0%)	0mo	$634,000	$285	95
28480 Cosmos Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,227 (0%)	2mo	$615,999	$277	94
30641 Via Del Cielo	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+1%)	0mo	$652,990	$289	67
30612 Corte Hermoso	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+1%)	1mo	$632,260	$280	65
30538 Via Del Cielo	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+1%)	1mo	$622,990	$276	65
30563 Via Del Cielo	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+1%)	1mo	$627,590	$278	64
30577 Corte Hermoso	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+1%)	2mo	$629,990	$279	62
30605 Via Del Cielo	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+4%)	0mo	$639,990	$277	58
30613 Corte Hermoso	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+4%)	1mo	$649,990	$281	55
30645 Camino Del Sur	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+4%)	2mo	$645,000	$279	54
30574 Via Del Cielo	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+14%)	1mo	$689,990	$272	40
30588 Corte Hermoso	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+14%)	2mo	$674,990	$266	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $278,263
• Equity at exit: $554,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $829,550
• Equity at exit: $1,196,751

Cash invested: $172,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,230
• Tax from tax record: −$891 /mo · $10,688/yr
• Insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$981
• Net cashflow: $-686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,541

Max offer price $494,861

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-511	+0% $-686	+5% $-860	+10% $-1,034
Rent	-10% $-1,055	-5% $-870	+0% $-686	+5% $-501	+10% $-317
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-529	base $-686	+0.5pp $-845	+1.0pp $-1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,000
• Closing costs: $18,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	0d	1	0.05mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	16d	1	0.30mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	20d	1	0.37mi
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,249	$2.05	6d	1	0.38mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1775	$3,395	$1.91	0d	1	0.43mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	12d	1	0.74mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	16d	1	1.12mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	0d	1	1.16mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	22d	1	1.16mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,379	$1.99	0d	1	1.17mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	22d	1	1.18mi
29502 Marx Way Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,150	$2.14	0d	1	1.18mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	22d	1	1.18mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	22d	1	1.18mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	9d	1	1.20mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	45d	1	1.20mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	16d	1	1.22mi
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	13d	1	1.26mi
32333 Wild West Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	45d	1	1.44mi
29335 Adams St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2419	$3,500	$1.45	45d	1	1.44mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $615,999 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $615,999 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $615,999 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $615,999 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $615,999 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,999 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $615,999 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $615,999 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,688 · $891/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,688 · $891/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,506
• − Property taxes: −$10,688
• − Insurance: −$3,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,486
• − Management: −$4,486
• − Depreciation: −$17,920
• Taxable loss: −$19,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $615,999 CRMLS
• 2022-12-21 Sold (MLS) $564,315 CRMLS
• 2022-11-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-10-31 Listed $548,490 CRMLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,637,091 Public Records
• 2013-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $2,628,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $2,400,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $675,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,688 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.