945 Walnut St · Reno, TX 76020

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1996 1.19 ac lot Est $166k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE MOBILE HOME LAND WITH MATURE TREES AND CAR PORT.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ELECTRIC RANGE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and VA financing; Special taxing entities: No
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Overhead utilities
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1996; Board & batten siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing with gate and wire; Acreage lot with few trees, landscaped and large grassy backyard; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; Room count: 7
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area; Laundry located in hall; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.0% in Reno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,131 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
960 Cottonwood St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-10%)	8mo	$149,000	$108	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,667
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,619
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,869/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1408 Arvel Cir Apt B Azle, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,415	$1.18	3d	1	0.32mi
1401 Arvel Cir Azle, TX	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	44d	1	0.35mi
1058 E Reno Rd Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	44d	1	0.76mi
312 Blanco Dr Azle, TX	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,495	$1.20	1d	1	0.78mi
448 Kaufman Dr Azle, TX	4.0	3.0	2091	$2,500	$1.20	1d	1	0.97mi
912 Red Bud Dr Azle, TX	3.0	1.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	1d	1	1.45mi
12235 FM 730 N Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,425	$0.95	44d	1	1.46mi
12235 FM 730 N Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,425	$0.84	7d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-01
   price $189,900
4. 2026-03-09
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2025-10-22
   soldstatus
6. 2008-12-08
   soldstatus
7. 2007-08-16
   soldstatus
8. 2007-08-15
   soldstatus 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   NICE MOBILE HOME LAND WITH MATURE TREES AND CAR PORT.

9. 2007-08-03
   soldstatus
10. 2007-07-31
    historical 53-char remark

    Show marketing remark (53 chars)

    NICE MOBILE HOME LAND WITH MATURE TREES AND CAR PORT.

11. 2007-07-14
    listed $25,000 53-char remark

    Show marketing remark (53 chars)

    NICE MOBILE HOME LAND WITH MATURE TREES AND CAR PORT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,869
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$273
• After-tax cash flow: $2,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Reno

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1131
• US rank: #20008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reno, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+659.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-07-14 Listed $25,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,869 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.