1116 Riverside Cir · Spring Lake, NC 28390

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 985 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1969 0.29 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three-Bedroom Brick Ranch located in Bragg Estates. Large, fenced backyard with outdoor storage, covered back deck with built in seating. Home has hardwood floors in the hallway, two bedrooms, and dining room that could be refinished, there is an active Roof boot leak near the primary bathroom and is need of repair. Home has tons of potential. Investors welcome. Home is subject to noise from Fort Bragg. Home sold AS-IS. Septic pumped May 2026.

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Built in seating
• Covered back deck

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR STORAGE
• COVERED BACK DECK
• BUILT IN SEATING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.5% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#543 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.15%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1142 Riverside Cir	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,058 (+7%)	20mo	$85,000	$80	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,275
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $30,611
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Vass Rd Spring Lake, NC	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	23d	1	0.93mi
222-232 W Manchester Rd Unit Manchester Arms Apartments Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.28mi
222 W Manchester Rd Unit 222 Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.28mi
222 W Manchester Rd Unit 222 Spring Lake, NC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 447-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$310
• After-tax cash flow: $3,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #19811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,000
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · +45.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.