6619 Cobalt St · Houston, TX 77016

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1960 7,148 sqft lot Est $163k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled and move-in ready, this beautifully updated home offers modern finishes and peace of mind with all the major systems already done. Recent upgrades include a brand-new roof, new HVAC system, and a new electrical panel. Inside, you’ll love the open-concept layout featuring a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, complete with a full gas range, large island, stylish farmhouse sink, a Double Rainfall Shower and remodeled bathroom, and modern finishes-perfect for entertaining or everyday living.

Key facts

• Large island
• New electrical panel
• Full gas range

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULL GAS RANGE
• LARGE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-19/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,513 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6330 Cobalt St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+3%)	1mo	$199,995	$161	74
6411 Hartwick Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,222 (+1%)	8mo	$165,000	$135	74
11151 Spottswood Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,283 (+6%)	1mo	$99,900	$78	71
6622 Cobalt St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-13%)	1mo	$125,000	$119	70
6319 Hopper Rd	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,188 (-2%)	1mo	$110,000	$93	63
11311 Raincove Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (-0%)	9mo	$182,500	$152	62
6130 Hartwick Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,278 (+6%)	5mo	$115,000	$90	62
6611 Mohawk St	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,255 (+4%)	6mo	$142,500	$114	60
5930 Annunciation St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,235 (+2%)	0mo	$186,999	$151	60
11011 Ledford Ln	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,203 (-1%)	2mo	$170,000	$141	59
6406 Guadalupe St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (-14%)	6mo	$165,000	$159	54
6110 Guadalupe St	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,336 (+10%)	1mo	$120,000	$90	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $82,089
• Equity at exit: $152,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $231,361
• Equity at exit: $311,780

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $189,715

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $52	+0% $-2	+5% $-55	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-65	+0% $-2	+5% $62	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $47	base $-2	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.21mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.50mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	0.55mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	6d	1	0.57mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.67mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	1.00mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.27mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-04
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   price $190,000
5. 2026-03-23
   status Active
6. 2026-03-08
   historical
7. 2026-02-26
   listed $199,900 Active
8. 2026-02-23
   historical
9. 2026-02-22
   price $205,000
10. 2026-02-19
    price $209,900
11. 2026-02-05
    listed $215,000 Active
12. 2025-10-28
    soldstatus
13. 2025-10-08
    historical
14. 2025-10-08
    listed $45,000 Active
15. 1996-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,148/yr (+$96/mo · 49.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+322.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 1996-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,329 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.