207 Thomas Sreet · Baxley, GA 31513

$92,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot $75/sqft · 26% below area Est $125k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This conveniently located 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers a great opportunity for both investors and homeowners alike. Currently used as a rental property, it provides immediate income potential or can easily transition into a comfortable primary residence. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 89 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Baxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#416 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Appling County (town): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #84 of 174 in GA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Appling County Elementary School (math 41% / reading 28%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 1,189 students, 80% FRL); Appling County Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 713 students, 80% FRL); Appling County High School (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,060 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Appling County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Appling County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,480 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,555
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -26.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Kenny Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	6mo	$79,900	$65	71
143 Simmons St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	22mo	$153,700	$128	51
22 Blueberry St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	18mo	$220,000	$183	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-313
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $18,417
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31513

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $256	+0% $230	+5% $204	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $152	-5% $191	+0% $230	+5% $269	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $253	base $230	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
593 Beach Rd Unit 2 Baxley, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.10mi
593 Beach Rd Unit 1 Baxley, GA	2.0	2.0	1050	$975	$0.93	45d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $92,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $92,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $92,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-03-24
    listed $92,000 New 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    This conveniently located 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers a great opportunity for both investors and homeowners alike. Currently used as a rental property, it provides immediate income potential or can easily transition into a comfortable primary residence. Property is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 132.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $1,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$314
• After-tax cash flow: $2,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Appling County
• NCES district ID: 1300060
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,536
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7056
• State rank: #84 of 174 in GA

Livability — Baxley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #20537

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baxley, GA
• City population: 15,941
• Population (ZIP): 15,941

Population outlook (Appling County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,311 people
• By 2030: 18,130 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 17,650 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 16,788 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 14,406 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 10,443 · -43.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Appling

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.7% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+57.9 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.21%
• Current HPI: 194.6928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $92,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.