3115 Roger Ave · Odessa, TX 79762

$155,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1951 9,713 sqft lot $161/sqft · 116% above area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This property offers comfortable living with endless possibilities. Bring this vision back to life! Garage converted into a versatile bonus room- ideal for the 3rd bedroom, office, or additional living space. Huge yard, cyder block fence, HVAC system is currently not operational and will require repair or replacement-priced accordingly. space heating and window units for cooling. SALE AS IS! Buyer & buyer agent verify all pertinent information.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Cyder block fence
• 9,713 sq ft lot

Tags

• GARAGE CONVERTED BONUS ROOM
• HUGE YARD
• CYDER BLOCK FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Storage structure on property; Solar energy generation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; Dryer
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sam Houston El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 392 students, 90% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.69%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,697
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 58.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2519 Adams Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+7%)	20mo	$175,000	$171	45
1500 Castle Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$110,000	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,047
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $22,437
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $467	+0% $423	+5% $379	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $355	+0% $423	+5% $491	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $462	base $423	+0.5pp $382	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 E 23rd St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,400	$2.33	44d	1	0.55mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	0.69mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	0.85mi
1909 N Hancock Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,600	$2.38	44d	1	0.89mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	14d	18	0.92mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	22d	1	1.04mi
1219 Milburn Ave Unit K2YBUILDING K Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.12mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	44d	1	1.13mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	1.13mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J2VBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	1.14mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J1TBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.14mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	44d	1	1.20mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	22d	1	1.20mi
1501 N Texas Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	14d	1	1.21mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	22d	1	1.25mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	14d	1	1.25mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	44d	1	1.27mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $199,000 Active 476-char remark
18. 1999-06-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,145/yr (+$179/mo · 309.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$640
• After-tax cash flow: $4,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $155,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $199,000 ODMLS
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $692 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.