1416 E Avenue B · Bay City, TX 77414

$170,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1945 7,492 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $187k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EVERYTHING IS NEW! This beautiful home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is located in the heart of Bay City, with easy access to supermarkets, retail stores, restaurants, and more. FULLY RENOVATED WITH MAJOR UPGRADES: new siding, new subfloor and flooring, new front and back porch, new kitchen and laundry room, new A/C system with ducts and grill boxes, new electrical wiring with a new main breaker box, and all new plumbing.

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,849
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -9.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 12th St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,520 (+10%)	10mo	$125,000	$82	66
1309 5th St	0.59mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,392 (+0%)	8mo	$55,000	$40	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,036
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,377
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,894/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $175	+0% $127	+5% $79	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $64	+0% $127	+5% $189	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $170	base $127	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	44d	1	1.03mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	1.32mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    price $170,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    EVERYTHING IS NEW! This beautiful home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is located in the heart of Bay City, with easy access to supermarkets, retail stores, restaurants, and more. FULLY RENOVATED WITH MAJOR UPGRADES: new siding, new subfloor and flooring, new front and back porch, new kitchen and laundry room, new A/C system with ducts and grill boxes, new electrical wiring with a new main breaker box, and all new plumbing.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $175,000 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    EVERYTHING IS NEW! This beautiful home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is located in the heart of Bay City, with easy access to supermarkets, retail stores, restaurants, and more. FULLY RENOVATED WITH MAJOR UPGRADES: new siding, new subfloor and flooring, new front and back porch, new kitchen and laundry room, new A/C system with ducts and grill boxes, new electrical wiring with a new main breaker box, and all new plumbing.

18. 2024-10-24
    soldstatus
19. 2024-10-21
    soldstatus Sold 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Introducing a unique investment opportunity, this property boasts a special configuration ideal for the savvy investor. Nestled on a generous lot, this home features not one, but two distinct units, offering both versatility and potential. With separate entrances and living spaces, each unit provides privacy and independence for occupants. Don't miss out on this investor's dream!

20. 2024-10-21
    listed $18,007 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Introducing a unique investment opportunity, this property boasts a special configuration ideal for the savvy investor. Nestled on a generous lot, this home features not one, but two distinct units, offering both versatility and potential. With separate entrances and living spaces, each unit provides privacy and independence for occupants. Don't miss out on this investor's dream!

21. 2024-05-08
    historical
22. 2024-03-06
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,217/yr (+$101/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,894
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+143.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-21 Listed $18,007 HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $69,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,894 · -34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.