6876 Wels Ave · Baxter, MN 56401

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1975 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated and move-in ready up-and-down duplex in Brainerd! Both units are vacant, making this a perfect opportunity for an investor or an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit and rent out the other. Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and its own washer and dryer. Extensive updates throughout include flooring, paint, kitchens, bathrooms, and more—nearly everything has been redone. The home includes a 1-stall attached garage and sits on a corner lot with a private well and septic. Whether you're looking to house-hack or add to your portfolio, this property offers excellent potential and flexibility.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Fully renovated
• Private well

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• MOVE-IN READY
• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (40.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.7% in Baxter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Brainerd Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #85 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 401 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $220k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,579 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-54,998
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-73,069
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56401

• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $166,598

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 234 DOM
16. 2025-10-07
    listed $220,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Fully renovated and move-in ready up-and-down duplex in Brainerd! Both units are vacant, making this a perfect opportunity for an investor or an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit and rent out the other. Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and its own washer and dryer. Extensive updates throughout include flooring, paint, kitchens, bathrooms, and more—nearly everything has been redone. The home includes a 1-stall attached garage and sits on a corner lot with a private well and septic. Whether you're looking to house-hack or add to your portfolio, this property offers excellent potential and flexibility.

17. 2025-09-27
    historical
18. 2025-08-21
    price $225,000
19. 2025-07-21
    listed $235,000 Active
20. 2024-12-10
    historical
21. 2024-11-22
    price $239,000
22. 2024-11-06
    listed $249,000 Active
23. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus $117,000
24. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $117,000 Sold
25. 2023-10-26
    status Pending
26. 2023-06-27
    listed $139,900 Active
27. 2022-12-26
    status Pending
28. 2022-12-01
    listed $99,900 Active
29. 2022-12-01
    historical
30. 2022-10-19
    price $99,900
31. 2022-08-31
    price $119,900
32. 2022-07-27
    listed $129,900 Active
33. 2022-07-22
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$7,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brainerd Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706090
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,059
• Composite: 45.57/100
• National rank: #2596
• State rank: #85 of 301 in MN

Livability — Baxter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crow Wing County · 40,773 people
• City population: 8,932
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• Population (ZIP): 31,841
• Household income: $73,128
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.09%
• Current HPI: 220.3299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+69.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Listed $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $239,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-06 Listed $249,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-18 Sold (MLS) $117,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-27 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-19 Price Changed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-27 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-22 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.