4280 Patterson Dr #59 · Diamond Springs, CA 95619

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,204 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Lake Oaks 55+ community, this well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers move-in ready comfortable living. A standout feature is the large, covered wraparound deck ideal for year-round use with plenty of space for outdoor dining, seating and entertaining, all while enjoying the surrounding setting. The light-filled living room features a cathedral open beam ceiling, Heat N Glo electric fireplace, and a wet bar. The kitchen includes a dining bar, laminate flooring, and opens to a formal dining area. Recent improvements include a new roof (2023), newer HVAC & carpet. Additional highlights include a large storage room with a workbench and a separate shed.

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Dining bar
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• LARGE COVERED WRAPAROUND DECK
• LIGHT FILLED LIVING ROOM
• CATHEDRAL OPEN BEAM CEILING
• HEAT N GLO ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WET BAR
• DINING BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in a land-lease park
• Financial info: Land lease (yes) — monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) in a park; Built in 1981
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Westway manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Lake access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Electric cooktop; Hood over range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Synthetic countertops; Dining bar and formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heating; Fireplace insert (electric) in living room; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living area with open beam ceiling; Attached deck off the living area; Covered deck/patio; Dual-pane windows; Built-in storage area; Pet-friendly (cats and dogs allowed with size/number limits)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with sink; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.3% in Diamond Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,239 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mother Lode Union Elementary (rural): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,677 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,377
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-20,370
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95619

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,291/yr (+$108/mo · 245.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$2,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $1,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mother Lode Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625980
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,429
• Composite: 36.63/100
• National rank: #9251
• State rank: #726 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Diamond Springs

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1239
• US rank: #26264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Diamond Springs, CA
• City population: 6,362
• Population (ZIP): 6,362

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.93%
• Current HPI: 248.9804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $526 · +23.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.