20021 Cottonglade Ln · Houston, TX 77338

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1979 6,599 sqft lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Georges Home remodeled, one story, offers 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms. As you step inside, you are by a bright living space, and beautiful kitchen with a breakfast area.This home has a big backyard, with NO neighbors behind. Very close distance to an Elementary School, and locaetd close to local shops and restaurants. Ready for you and your family to starting a new memories. Schedule your tour today and come experrience the charm this Home has to offer.

Key facts

• Bright living space
• Remodeled
• Big backyard

Tags

• REMODELED
• BRIGHT LIVING SPACE
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• BIG BACKYARD
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND
• CLOSE TO LOCAL SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $195k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,028 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,235
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -0.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20014 Bishops Gate Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,472 (0%)	1mo	$190,995	$130	91
8226 Forest Point Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+1%)	2mo	$169,680	$115	89
19907 Lions Gate Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-3%)	1mo	$209,000	$146	73
20011 Lions Gate Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-5%)	2mo	$205,900	$148	69
8127 White Arbor Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+0%)	1mo	$209,500	$142	68
19834 Lions Gate Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-8%)	1mo	$204,900	$152	63
8302 Opalwood Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+15%)	2mo	$214,999	$127	58
19922 Bridgedale Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+12%)	1mo	$246,000	$149	51
20219 Fox Grove Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+8%)	1mo	$195,000	$122	50
21126 Sprouse Cir	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,577 (+7%)	2mo	$226,400	$144	47
20215 Fox Grove Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$128	40
7315 Foxside Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (+14%)	2mo	$185,000	$110	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,526
• Equity at exit: $49,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,719
• Equity at exit: $53,475

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,726/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $177,028

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20126 Chipplegate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.13mi
20211 Cottonglade Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	43d	1	0.18mi
19902 Bishops Gate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,825	$1.16	24d	1	0.25mi
7810 Birchbark Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,899	$1.14	24d	1	0.33mi
19815 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,756	$1.88	3d	62	0.49mi
19806 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,281	$1.37	43d	1	0.55mi
20327 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,786	$1.46	7d	1	0.57mi
20102 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,999	$1.22	43d	1	0.57mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 2148 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,367	$1.46	2d	1	0.61mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Apt 422 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,375	$1.47	7d	1	0.61mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19857 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,399	$1.50	10d	1	0.61mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,375	$1.47	5d	1	0.61mi
7318 Foxway Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,759	$1.01	24d	1	0.63mi
20418 Red Canyon Creek Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.69mi
21235 Grand Field Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	43d	1	0.69mi
7214 Foxbend Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,995	$1.25	2d	1	0.73mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE14103 Humble, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	43d	1	0.80mi
7507 Kennemer Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,766	$1.11	11d	1	0.82mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,438	$1.47	5d	1	0.82mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 422 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,245	$1.35	7d	1	0.86mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 19977 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,237	$1.34	2d	1	0.86mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,245	$1.35	5d	1	0.86mi
7150 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,625	$1.86	43d	4	0.90mi
7010 Foxmar Ln Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,750	$1.32	43d	1	0.96mi
7010 Foxmont Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,735	$1.01	44d	1	0.96mi
8902 Snapping Turtle Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,729	$1.22	7d	1	0.96mi
9393 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,966	$1.90	2d	25	1.12mi
20538 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,931	$1.19	21d	1	1.15mi
19106 Sears Dr Unit B Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1228	$1,895	$1.54	7d	1	1.28mi
19710 Townsen Blvd Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,697	$1.45	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $195,000 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Georges Home remodeled, one story, offers 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms. As you step inside, you are by a bright living space, and beautiful kitchen with a breakfast area.This home has a big backyard, with NO neighbors behind. Very close distance to an Elementary School, and locaetd close to local shops and restaurants. Ready for you and your family to starting a new memories. Schedule your tour today and come experrience the charm this Home has to offer.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $204,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Georges Home remodeled, one story, offers 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms. As you step inside, you are by a bright living space, and beautiful kitchen with a breakfast area.This home has a big backyard, with NO neighbors behind. Very close distance to an Elementary School, and locaetd close to local shops and restaurants. Ready for you and your family to starting a new memories. Schedule your tour today and come experrience the charm this Home has to offer.

17. 2026-04-14
    historical
18. 2026-03-30
    price $204,000
19. 2026-03-10
    listed $208,000 Active
20. 2026-03-02
    historical $1,673
21. 2026-02-18
    price $1,673
22. 2026-01-13
    price $1,723
23. 2026-01-10
    listed $1,595
24. 2025-12-24
    historical $1,700
25. 2025-10-02
    listed $1,700
26. 2024-06-24
    soldstatus
27. 1997-12-03
    soldstatus $64,638
28. 1997-11-01
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,726 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,726 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,726
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $-148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+261.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Rental Removed $1,673 RENTLY
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $1,673 RENTLY
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $1,723 RENTLY
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $1,595 RENTLY
• 2025-12-24 Rental Removed $1,700 RentEngineListings
• 2025-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,700 RentEngineListings
• 2024-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,638 Public Records
• 1997-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,726 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.