221 Caroline Trl · Anahuac, TX 77514

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2000 9,256 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location close to I-10. Schedule a showing today.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• New hot water heater
• Huge island

Tags

• KITCHEN UPGRADE
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING UNITS
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• HUGE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-718/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Anahuac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#365 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anahuac ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anahuac Middle (math 52% / reading 46%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 326 students, 61% FRL); Anahuac H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 454 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,726 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-40,975
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-40,160
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77514

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,084/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,163

Max offer price $219,433

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-14
   listed $230,000 Active
9. 2020-03-25
   soldstatus Sold 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Great location close to I-10. Schedule a showing today.

10. 2020-01-31
    listed $47,500 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Great location close to I-10. Schedule a showing today.

11. 2014-11-04
    historical 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

12. 2014-10-31
    soldstatus Sold 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

13. 2014-10-29
    soldstatus
14. 2014-09-20
    status Pending 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

15. 2014-08-29
    status Pending, Continue to Show 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

16. 2014-08-18
    status Option Pending 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

17. 2014-04-05
    listed $119,700 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Unique two story home with a spacious floor plan. Family Room overlooks kitchen below. Located in a picturesque and unrestricted neighborhood with great access to Interstate 10. Great fishing on the banks of historic Turtle Bayou across the street.

18. 2005-01-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,084 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,084
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anahuac ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808190
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,714
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5043
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Anahuac

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #7791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,213

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.88%
• Current HPI: 203.8454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-01-31 Listed $47,500 HARMLS
• 2014-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-05 Listed $119,700 HARMLS
• 2005-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,084 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.