18116 Red Pine Ct · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$214,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2000 6,394 sqft lot Est $385k · 44% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* FULLY RENOVATED * charming one story, brick home in the heart of Cumberland! Kitchen includes granite counter tops with dark cabinetry and wood like tiled flooring. Two pantries for extra storage and an over sized island with USB outlets. Gas log fireplace in the kitchen/great room. Office enclosed by glass french doors includes a closet and can be used as a fourth bedroom. Roof, AC and windows all replaced within the past 2 years! In addition, property includes a great storage shed in the backyard! Come see this fantastic home!!! Near Hwy 99 and 69 and just minutes away from the new Valley Ranch Town Center full of shopping, entertainment, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Split floor plan
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOAKING TUB
• SHED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $600 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a cul-de-sac; Subdivision setting; Lot approximately 6,395 sq ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island; Kitchen/family room open layout; Kitchen/dining combined; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 16 x 14; Bedroom (first level) — 13 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 13 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 13 x 10; Den (first level) — 13 x 15; Breakfast nook (first level) — 13 x 11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Kitchen and dining combined; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (first level) — 8 x 5.5

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-955/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (6.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert Crippen El (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 858 students, 77% FRL); White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,844 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $385,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8732 Mancos Valley Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,939 (+1%)	0mo	$374,990	$193	88
9519 Sierra Crest Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,852 (-3%)	1mo	$369,990	$200	79
9624 Mount Brewer Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-5%)	1mo	$349,990	$191	73
8935 Blackwoods Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-9%)	1mo	$375,000	$216	73
9515 Sierra Crest Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,767 (-8%)	1mo	$349,990	$198	71
9429 Pacific Crest Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+9%)	1mo	$431,990	$206	67
9511 Sierra Crest Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,766 (-8%)	1mo	$354,990	$201	65
22238 Junction Peak Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,093 (+9%)	1mo	$447,990	$214	62
22423 Sawmill Pass Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,076 (+8%)	2mo	$399,990	$193	59
8334 Boundary Waters Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+9%)	2mo	$424,990	$203	59
22703 Sheep Creek Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-4%)	1mo	$396,990	$217	59
9623 Mount Brewer Ln	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,119 (+11%)	2mo	$414,990	$196	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,712
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-54,966
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,062/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $200,844

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-19	+0% $-80	+5% $-140	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-172	+0% $-80	+5% $13	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-25	base $-80	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18167 Woodsdale Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1608	$1,769	$1.10	4d	1	0.21mi
21625 Hackamore Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,070	$1.18	0d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Pending 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Pending 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Pending 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   status $214,900 Pending 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,062 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,062 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$7,062
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-18 Listed $207,500 HARMLS
• 2020-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-06-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-05-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-05-03 Price Changed $207,500 HARMLS
• 2020-04-09 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-09 Price Changed $198,900 HARMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $203,000 HARMLS
• 2004-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,062 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.