122 N Bay Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75757

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1995 $134/sqft · 23% below area Est $361k · 23% under $422/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has a very livable floor plan and a very nice lot. It would be great for children or that pool!! It does need some updating but it is priced that you may do that. The home is very close to the gate which makes it nice when coming home from somewhere or when leaving the Bay. Emerald Bay is a very unique gated community. It has a church, golf course, club house, fishing, tennis courts, basketball court, playground and many social activities all behind the gate. It is a community for all ages. Emerald Bay's golf course was voted number 1 in the East Texas area for 2025. Hurry come take a look at this home and get ready for the summer activities right in your own yard!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Livable floor plan
• Nice lot

Tags

• LIVABLE FLOOR PLAN
• NICE LOT
• CLOSE TO THE GATE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF COURSE
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Emerald Bay subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $422; Community amenities: golf, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with automatic garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer and shingle siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Lake frontage (Lake Palestine); Satellite dish

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($71/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,441
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -22.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15434 Lakeside Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,969 (-6%)	12mo	$655,000	$333	64
104 Williamsburg Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,364 (+13%)	9mo	$345,000	$146	61
119 Graham Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,318 (+11%)	20mo	$449,000	$194	44
15478 CR 1197	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	20mo	$329,900	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,685
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,168
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,284/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$422
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,992

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $85	+0% $6	+5% $-73	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-113	+0% $6	+5% $124	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $77	base $6	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 N Bay Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	2324	$3,000	$1.29	14d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $422 · $5,064/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 685-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $280,000 Active 685-char remark
3. 1997-08-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,284 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,284
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − HOA: −$5,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2026-05-10 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $280,000 GTAR
• 1997-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,284 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.