38388 Pindos Dr · Dade City, FL 33525

$328,490

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $134/sqft · 19% below area Est $406k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining with access to the patio. A secondary bedroom on the first floor can easily be converted to a guest room or home office. Upstairs is a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space, along with three secondary bedrooms and a luxe owner's suite comprised of an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Guest room
• Access to patio
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ACCESS TO PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• GUEST ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $328k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,785/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,486 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,983
• List price: $328,490
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12041 Fallow Down Dr	0.50mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	0mo	$354,990	$136	66
12090 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (+6%)	18mo	$425,990	$165	65
12014 Fallow Down Dr	0.53mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	1mo	$369,990	$142	63
38408 Palomino Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,701 (+10%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	61
12139 Stirrup Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	16mo	$419,900	$155	60
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (-10%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	58
12239 Stirrup Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+10%)	14mo	$399,900	$148	58
12183 Stirrup Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+10%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	58
12195 Stirrup Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	57
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	57
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-14%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	51
11805 Carmen Ave	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,302 (-6%)	17mo	$369,000	$160	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,595
• Equity at exit: $48,979

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-55,499
• Equity at exit: $28,402

Cash invested: $91,977 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 91 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 136.5 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $330,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 49% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,723
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,927/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $318,349

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $43	+0% $-70	+5% $-184	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-180	+0% $-70	+5% $40	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $13	base $-70	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,122
• Closing costs: $9,855
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.10mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.14mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	7d	8	0.46mi
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.47mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.48mi
37011 Bear Branch Dr Dade City, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1628	$2,275	$1.40	7d	10	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $356,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 38388 Pindos Dr, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Eclipse planLiving area approximately 2,451

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $328,490 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $328,240 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   price $328,240 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-07-23
   days on market $327,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-07-22
   days on market $327,990 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-07-21
   pricedays on market $327,990 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-07-20
   days on market $327,740 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $327,740 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $327,740 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $327,740 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $327,740 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $327,740 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-07-11
    days on market $327,740 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-07-10
    days on market $327,740 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    price $327,740 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $357,490 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $347,400 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $347,400 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $347,400 Active 65 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $347,400 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-07-03
    days on market $347,400 Active 63 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $347,400 Active 62 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $347,150 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $347,150 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    price $347,150 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $346,900 Active 59 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 58 DOM
28. 2026-06-27
    days on market $346,900 Active 57 DOM
29. 2026-06-26
    days on market $346,900 Active 56 DOM
30. 2026-06-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $346,900 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $346,900 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $346,900 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $346,900 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $342,900 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-09
    days on market $342,650 Active 39 DOM
37. 2026-06-08
    days on market $342,650 Active 38 DOM
38. 2026-06-07
    days on market $342,650 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $342,650 Active 34 DOM
40. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,400 Active 33 DOM
41. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $342,400 Active 32 DOM
42. 2026-06-01
    days on market $356,740 Active 31 DOM
43. 2026-05-31
    days on market $356,740 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,927
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,673
• − Management: −$2,673
• − Depreciation: −$9,556
• Taxable loss: −$6,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,549
• After-tax cash flow: $708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,255–$36,765 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and convenience for potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $356,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 38388 Pindos Dr, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Eclipse planLiving area approximately 2,451