51 Lincoln Ave Unit D22 · Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$274,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 39,320 sqft · Condo · 56 Days on market

Built 1939 Fair condition $7/sqft · 33% below area Est $411k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 51 Lincoln Avenue, a second-floor 1-bedroom co-op offering incredible potential in one of Nassau County’s most desirable and vibrant communities. This unit is a blank canvas ready for your vision—perfect for buyers looking to customize or investors seeking value. The apartment features a spacious living room with hardwood floors throughout and great natural light from large windows. The bedroom offers a comfortable layout, while the eat-in kitchen and full bathroom provide the opportunity for a complete modern redesign. Classic details like crown molding and high ceilings add character and charm. This unit does require renovation, making it an ideal opportunity to create your dream space or maximize resale value. Cat or Dog ok up to 30lbs

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Natural light
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FULL BATHROOM
• CROWN MOLDING
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $275k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Rockville Centre Union Free School District (suburban): math 82% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #37 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,749 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,256
• List price: $274,999
• Delta: -33.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-17,023
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $20,760
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11570

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $274,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $527	+0% $432	+5% $337	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $315	+0% $432	+5% $548	+10% $665
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $502	base $432	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Welcome to 51 Lincoln Avenue, a second-floor 1-bedroom co-op offering incredible potential in one of Nassau County’s most desirable and vibrant communities. This unit is a blank canvas ready for your vision—perfect for buyers looking to customize or investors seeking value. The apartment features a spacious living room with hardwood floors throughout and great natural light from large windows. The bedroom offers a comfortable layout, while the eat-in kitchen and full bathroom provide the opportunity for a complete modern redesign. Classic details like crown molding and high ceilings add character and charm. This unit does require renovation, making it an ideal opportunity to create your dream space or maximize resale value. Cat or Dog ok up to 30lbs

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $274,999 Active 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Welcome to 51 Lincoln Avenue, a second-floor 1-bedroom co-op offering incredible potential in one of Nassau County’s most desirable and vibrant communities. This unit is a blank canvas ready for your vision—perfect for buyers looking to customize or investors seeking value. The apartment features a spacious living room with hardwood floors throughout and great natural light from large windows. The bedroom offers a comfortable layout, while the eat-in kitchen and full bathroom provide the opportunity for a complete modern redesign. Classic details like crown molding and high ceilings add character and charm. This unit does require renovation, making it an ideal opportunity to create your dream space or maximize resale value. Cat or Dog ok up to 30lbs

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,834
• − Management: −$2,834
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$205
• After-tax cash flow: $4,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This unit requires a moderate renovation to bring it up to modern standards, with a focus on kitchen and bathroom updates, interior paint, and system upgrades. The blank canvas nature of the space makes it an ideal opportunity for investors seeking value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — Blank canvas
• Major bathroom — Blank canvas
• Major interior walls/paint — Blank canvas
• Major systems — Blank canvas

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — Modern design and functionality
• Both bathroom renovation — Modern design and functionality
• Both interior paint — Fresh, modern look
• Both system upgrades — Improved functionality and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · Blank canvas	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom · Blank canvas	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Blank canvas	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · Blank canvas	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — Modern design and functionality ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — Modern design and functionality ↑
• Both interior paint — Fresh, modern look ↑
• Both system upgrades — Improved functionality and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockville Centre Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624780
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,401
• Composite: 74.33/100
• National rank: #162
• State rank: #37 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rockville Centre

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #365

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockville Centre, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 28,908
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,908
• Household income: $157,163
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -731.15%
• Current HPI: 275.9882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $274,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid