102 Big Valley Dr · Bristol, TN 37620

$68,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

14x66 single wide mobile home on lot in great park. Lot rent is 300 plus water, sewer and trash. . this usually equals to around 340. Shed is included that has work stations and ability to hook up electricity. Home has covered front porch, uncovered deck, and uncovered back porch. All appliances come with home except washer and dryer. Home can stay on lot or be moved. Open to offers. Owners currently live in home so a tour will need to be set up. PLEASE do not use email, text [phone]

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Uncovered deck
• Lot in great park

Tags

• SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• LOT IN GREAT PARK
• SHED INCLUDED
• ABILITY TO HOOK UP ELECTRICITY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UNCOVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, commute F.
• Bristol (urban): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #29 of 139 in TN (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.12%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $7,699
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $31,596
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37620

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $68,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $68,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$5,458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $2,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$688
• After-tax cash flow: $2,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This single-wide mobile home requires moderate renovations, focusing on interior walls and paint, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major interior walls — Walls show significant wear
• Major interior paint — Paint appears chipped and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair interior paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both install new flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both install new kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract buyers and renters
• Both install new bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can attract buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
interior walls · Walls show significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Paint appears chipped and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair interior paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both install new kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both install new bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can attract buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol
• NCES district ID: 4700360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,018
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6376
• State rank: #29 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #5413

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 38,494
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,494
• Household income: $56,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.12%
• Current HPI: 263.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $68,000 FSBO.com