103 Douglas Dr · Lakehurst, NJ 08527

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1986 $62/sqft · 84% below area $612/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming double-wide mobile home featuring a bright and open floor plan. Offering 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home boasts a large kitchen complete with a center island and ample cabinet space--ideal for cooking and gathering. The primary bedroom is generously sized and includes a full wall of closet space, providing excellent storage. Enjoy the convenience of direct entry to the laundry room, making daily tasks a breeze. A ramp-accessible back door adds ease and accessibility. Relax and unwind on the covered front porch--perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or spending time with family and friends. The beautifully landscaped yard enhances the home's curb appeal, while the backyard offers additional space for gardening or outdoor enjoyment.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Ample cabinet space
• Center island

Tags

• BRIGHT AND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• FULL WALL OF CLOSET SPACE
• DIRECT ENTRY TO LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $95k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.18%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $577,238
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -83.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $48,376
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $102,437
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$612
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $1,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
823 Bowman Rd Jackson, NJ	3.0	2.5	2119	$3,200	$1.51	43d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $612 · $7,344/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $95,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Welcome to this charming double-wide mobile home featuring a bright and open floor plan. Offering 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home boasts a large kitchen complete with a center island and ample cabinet space--ideal for cooking and gathering. The primary bedroom is generously sized and includes a full wall of closet space, providing excellent storage. Enjoy the convenience of direct entry to the laundry room, making daily tasks a breeze. A ramp-accessible back door adds ease and accessibility. Relax and unwind on the covered front porch--perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or spending time with family and friends. The beautifully landscaped yard enhances the home's curb appeal, while the backyard offers additional space for gardening or outdoor enjoyment.

16. 2008-12-12
    soldstatus $51,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Enter into this bright and airy open floor plan 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide unit. Excellent condition, Sparkling clean. Move right in! Vaulted ceiling, Kitchen w/island and stools, Master bedroom w/extra closet space and large master bath w/garden tub and shower stall. Newer carpeting thru-out. Loads of closet space thru-out home. Direct entry to large laundry/mud room from side of unit. Neutral decor thru-out. Gas conversion done 2008. Nice size front porch to gather w/friends. Not a drive by.

17. 2008-09-12
    listed $55,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Enter into this bright and airy open floor plan 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide unit. Excellent condition, Sparkling clean. Move right in! Vaulted ceiling, Kitchen w/island and stools, Master bedroom w/extra closet space and large master bath w/garden tub and shower stall. Newer carpeting thru-out. Loads of closet space thru-out home. Direct entry to large laundry/mud room from side of unit. Neutral decor thru-out. Gas conversion done 2008. Nice size front porch to gather w/friends. Not a drive by.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,920
• − Management: −$2,920
• − HOA: −$7,344
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $13,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,200
• After-tax cash flow: $10,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+72.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $95,000 MOMLS
• 2008-12-12 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MOMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listed $55,000 MOMLS