123 Lexington Blvd · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 4,791 sqft lot Est $295k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for an investor. Owner was previously getting $1200 per month in rent. Easy to show

Key facts

• Refreshed bath
• Renovated
• Updated interior

Tags

• RENOVATED
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATH
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Cooling system (other type)
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Crawl space basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $219,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$295,200) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 213% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $219k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Lexington Blvd	0.08mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	2mo	$217,500	$242	95
24 Anchor Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+4%)	4mo	$290,000	$310	78
6 Anchor Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+8%)	14mo	$365,000	$374	63
142 Village Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+8%)	12mo	$345,000	$354	61
35 Tiller Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+8%)	21mo	$320,000	$328	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,916
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $28,496
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,810/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Potomac Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	5d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $219,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $219,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,810 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,631 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,822/yr (+$152/mo · 100.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,810
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $1,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$415
• After-tax cash flow: $4,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+231.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $219,000 MOMLS
• 2020-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MOMLS
• 2020-06-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-06-01 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-01 Listed $69,900 MOMLS
• 2008-12-04 Sold (MLS) $73,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-07-11 Listed $77,740 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,810 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.