973 Apache Trl · Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$103,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 207 Days on market

Built 1972 0.35 ac lot Est $194k · 47% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment! Singlewide in High Chapparral just off the Blue Ridge Parkway in Fancy Gap VA. 2 bedroom 2 bath. Nice decks on front and back to enjoy the mountain air and views. HOA included community water and road maintenance! Acreage is estmated. Buyer to determine internet options.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 206 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $37.50 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Residential property in the High Chaparral subdivision; Zoned SFS
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Fancy Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fancy Gap Elementary (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 127 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($712 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $103k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.37%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,432
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
575 Apache Trl	0.35mi	2/1.0	882 (-2%)	11mo	$180,000	$204	68
632 Apache Trl	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	922 (+3%)	18mo	$200,000	$217	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $42,810
• Equity at exit: $45,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $109,811
• Equity at exit: $69,352

Cash invested: $28,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24328

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $103,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,750
• Closing costs: $3,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $103,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $103,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $103,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $103,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $103,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $103,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $103,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    price $103,000
17. 2025-11-24
    listed $115,000 Active
18. 2012-03-02
    soldstatus $31,100
19. 2007-02-16
    soldstatus $17,620

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,770
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$515
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$2,996
• Taxable income: $4,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,087
• After-tax cash flow: $4,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fancy Gap

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #23081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 168.5656
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+484.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $103,000 SWVAR
• 2025-11-24 Listed $115,000 SWVAR
• 2012-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $31,100 Public Records
• 2007-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $17,620 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $82 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.