4645 Winters Ln · Cold Spring, KY 41076

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 1.60 ac lot Est $271k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cold Spring- 1.6 Acres, Home is Ready for updating Great Location, Private Setting, Mature Trees, Large 30 x 30 Detached 2 car garage, large shed, Conventional, rehab or Cash offers only.

Key facts

• 1.6 acres
• Private setting
• Large shed

Tags

• 1.6 ACRES
• PRIVATE SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half levels; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, sloped, and wooded lot; Vinyl window frames; Shingle roof; Garage(s) and shed(s); Gravel road frontage on a city street; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Wood cabinets; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (10 x 9); Bedroom 2 (10 x 9); Bedroom 3 (13 x 11) — includes ceiling fan
• Flooring: Hardwood floors (family room)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Cold Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#70 in KY, #1,766 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Campbell County (suburban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #15 of 165 in KY (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crossroads Elementary School (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 613 students, 58% FRL); Campbell County Middle School (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #54 of 217 statewide, top 25%, 1,184 students, 45% FRL); Campbell County High School (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #51 of 254 statewide, top 21%, 1,551 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,856 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,440
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Daverick Ct	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$208	53
4921 Holtz Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+15%)	1mo	$325,000	$217	44
55 Linet Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,196 (-8%)	22mo	$244,950	$205	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,705
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,355
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41076

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,012/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $154	+0% $105	+5% $55	+10% $5
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $41	+0% $105	+5% $168	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $149	base $105	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 5th Ave Highland Heights, KY	3.0	1.0	1009	$1,875	$1.86	2d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-28
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,012
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $1,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County
• NCES district ID: 2100900
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $62,891
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3864
• State rank: #15 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cold Spring

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #1766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• City population: 17,158
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,158
• Household income: $73,283
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.98%
• Current HPI: 177.9415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $175,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,012 · +226.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.