Alford Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$339,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Alford is a one-story home that balances style, space, and comfort. Offering 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,739 square feet, this floor plan provides plenty of room for families of all sizes. Its open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The primary suite is tucked at the back of the home for added privacy, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities and a separate space for the shower and toilet. Four additional bedrooms at the front of the home offer flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office. The kitchen is a standout with shaker-style ca

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 163 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $339,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Address: Parrish, FL 34219
• Exterior features: Living area of 1739

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan name: Alford; Active listing status

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,539.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($114/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $299,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,539
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10972 Gentle Current Way	0.01mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	2mo	$344,890	$189	85
10640 Hidden Banks Gln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (-4%)	4mo	$327,990	$197	76
10712 Gentle Current Way	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	4mo	$367,500	$201	75
10610 Gentle Current Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	3mo	$344,000	$188	74
12816 Blue Reflection Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+6%)	2mo	$378,190	$204	71
10935 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+5%)	2mo	$377,000	$206	71
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+6%)	1mo	$361,990	$196	69
10724 Gentle Current Way	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	1mo	$322,000	$215	64
12420 Hopscotch Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	1mo	$330,000	$220	62
12431 Hopscotch Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-14%)	2mo	$312,000	$208	60
10833 Paddling Trace Run	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (+10%)	1mo	$346,990	$181	51
10416 Abundance Grove Way	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+6%)	2mo	$345,000	$188	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,984
• Equity at exit: $52,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-90,384
• Equity at exit: $30,222

Cash invested: $97,871 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,833
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,243/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,058

Max offer price $349,539

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $130	+0% $10	+5% $-111	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-112	+0% $10	+5% $131	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $98	base $10	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,385
• Closing costs: $10,486
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,990 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,990 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,990 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,990 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,990 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,580
• − Property taxes: −$5,243
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,947
• − Management: −$2,947
• − Depreciation: −$10,168
• Taxable loss: −$5,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B