2415 Kruse Loop · Avilla, AR 72002

$149,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · Manufactured · 238 Days on market

Built 2004 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large spacious 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home with formal dining, 2 living areas with decorative fireplace and huge 24x45 shop with basement under home. 2 primary bedrooms with full baths. Plenty of room to entertain guest with huge living room with large deck off double doors. See Agent remarks before showing.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 238 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options may include conventional loans, cash, or other methods (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal electric service; Propane gas; Insulated windows; Insulated doors; Other utilities (see remarks)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Metal/vinyl siding
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Deck; Porch; Shop; Paved road access; Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Decorative/non-functional fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.6% in Avilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#146 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bryant School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 238 in AR (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.76%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,526
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $49,507
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72002

• Home prices YoY: -11.0%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $559	+0% $516	+5% $474	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $446	+0% $516	+5% $587	+10% $657
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $554	base $516	+0.5pp $477	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Price Change 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Price Change 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Price Change 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Price Change 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $149,900 Price Change 223 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-01-10
    price $174,500
16. 2025-10-20
    historical
17. 2025-10-20
    listed $179,900 New Listing
18. 2025-10-20
    historical
19. 2025-10-20
    listed $199,900 Price Change
20. 2025-10-19
    listed $199,900 New Listing
21. 2022-01-14
    soldstatus $183,500
22. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $183,500 Sold
23. 2021-11-20
    status Under Contract
24. 2021-11-08
    listed $179,900 New Listing
25. 2018-05-24
    status Under Contract
26. 2018-05-02
    soldstatus $132,600
27. 2018-04-30
    soldstatus $132,600 Sold
28. 2018-03-22
    historical Take Backups
29. 2018-01-20
    listed $138,500 New Listing
30. 2018-01-06
    historical
31. 2017-11-09
    price $155,000
32. 2017-10-06
    listed $164,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 88.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$945
• After-tax cash flow: $5,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryant School District
• NCES district ID: 0503690
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,578
• Composite: 42.28/100
• National rank: #3266
• State rank: #16 of 238 in AR

Livability — Avilla

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #12711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,386

Population outlook (Saline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 140,141 people
• By 2030: 151,233 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 173,100 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 194,368 · +38.7%
• By 2075: 245,295 · +75.0%
• By 2100: 279,117 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Saline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 28.8% · R 69.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -41.0pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+42.7 2008: R+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.89%
• Current HPI: 226.2889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $174,500 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $179,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2022-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $183,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $183,500 CARMLS
• 2021-11-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-11-08 Listed $179,900 CARMLS
• 2018-05-24 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $132,600 Public Records
• 2018-04-30 Sold (MLS) $132,600 CARMLS
• 2018-03-22 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2018-01-20 Listed $138,500 CARMLS
• 2018-01-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-11-09 Price Changed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2017-10-06 Listed $164,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.