Honor Plan · Dade City, FL 33523

$361,190

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,753 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern and spacious layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept living area perfect for entertaining and everyday multitasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner with a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs, four comfortable bedrooms surround a sprawling loft.

Key facts

• Owner's suite
• Spacious loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: 360,890

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Honor); Located in Dade City, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,753 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Honor; Active new-construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $361,190 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $445,986.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,467 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.21%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $445,986
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14042 Grandeur Way	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,902 (+5%)	10mo	$970,000	$334	64
36072 Canelli Way	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,387 (-13%)	1mo	$319,990	$134	56
36183 Canelli Way	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,387 (-13%)	7mo	$340,990	$143	53
14063 Wineberry Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,828 (+3%)	8mo	$470,000	$166	51
36823 Center Ave	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,851 (+4%)	22mo	$615,000	$216	46
13662 Wineberry Dr	0.73mi	5/3.0	2,605 (-5%)	21mo	$404,000	$155	39
14062 Wineberry Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (-8%)	21mo	$411,500	$162	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $168,630
• Equity at exit: $401,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $555,092
• Equity at exit: $866,453

Cash invested: $124,876 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,339
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$557 /mo · $6,690/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,901

Max offer price $277,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-858	-5% $-1,013	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,321	+10% $-1,475
Rent	-10% $-1,358	-5% $-1,262	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,071	+10% $-975
Rate	-1.0pp $-942	-0.5pp $-1,053	base $-1,167	+0.5pp $-1,282	+1.0pp $-1,400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,496
• Closing costs: $13,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36111 Canelli Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,295	$1.14	3d	1	0.45mi
36169 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,600	$1.19	12d	1	1.27mi
35386 Spruce Knob Ct Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,695	$0.91	5d	1	1.38mi
35514 Mahwah Ave Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	21d	1	1.43mi
35288 Spruce Knob Ct Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,300	$1.00	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,190 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,190 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,190 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,190 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $361,190 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $361,090 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $361,090 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $360,990 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,990 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,990 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $360,990 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,890 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,890 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,982
• − Property taxes: −$6,690
• − Insurance: −$2,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$12,974
• Taxable loss: −$22,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B