430 Sequoia Dr · Lake Wales, FL 33859

$250,369

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,557 sqft · Townhouse · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $161/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming, two-story home showcases an open floor plan with tile flooring and a spacious great room. The modern kitchen boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar, pantry, Moen® faucet, Whirlpool® stainless steel appliances and 36-in. upper cabinets with hardware. Upstairs, a dedicated laundry room provides convenience, while the two secondary bedrooms each offers a large closet. Bath 2 includes a walk-in shower. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and connecting bath that has a dual-sink vanity and walk-in shower with tile surround.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Tile flooring
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• GREAT ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Wales — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,164 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,000
• List price: $250,369
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
387 Sequoia Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,685 (+8%)	1mo	$258,000	$153	83
746 Greenway Blvd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-4%)	1mo	$261,900	$175	63
216 Rivermill Way	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+10%)	1mo	$309,000	$181	62
545 Bell Prairie Cir	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,933 (+24%)	1mo	$263,000	$136	54
1111 Amber Waves Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-22%)	1mo	$237,900	$195	52
738 Greenway Blvd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-15%)	1mo	$248,900	$187	50
750 Greenway Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-15%)	0mo	$254,900	$192	50
4364 Dinner Lake Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+10%)	2mo	$284,000	$165	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-52,543
• Equity at exit: $37,331

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-61,089
• Equity at exit: $21,647

Cash invested: $70,103 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 132.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $228,536 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 4 d
• This list price: 95% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,313
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$313 /mo · $3,756/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $223,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-102	+0% $-188	+5% $-275	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-266	+0% $-188	+5% $-111	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-125	base $-188	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,592
• Closing costs: $7,511
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
355 Sequoia Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,100	$1.25	9d	1	0.10mi
3208 Creek Side Dr Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	1187	$1,420	$1.20	9d	1	0.18mi
160 Cypress Knees Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,900	$1.26	9d	1	0.24mi
573 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,895	$1.31	6d	1	0.27mi
598 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1931	$1,900	$0.98	73d	1	0.29mi
602 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	80d	1	0.29mi
260 Lake Suzanne Dr Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,650	$1.25	119d	1	0.33mi
626 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	119d	1	0.35mi
529 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,000	$1.06	87d	1	0.37mi
645 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,000	$1.03	107d	1	0.37mi
517 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,100	$1.11	110d	1	0.38mi
517 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,098	$1.09	92d	1	0.38mi
642 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1931	$2,199	$1.14	6d	1	0.39mi
309 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,200	$1.14	73d	1	0.43mi
437 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,750	$1.13	6d	1	0.45mi
413 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	98d	1	0.47mi
338 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,000	$1.09	9d	1	0.49mi
346 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	9d	1	0.51mi
199 Dinner Lake Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	110d	1	0.52mi
105 Serenity Loop Unit 5-302 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$2,305	$2.11	119d	1	0.62mi
105 Serenity Loop Unit 10-302 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$2,353	$2.15	0d	1	0.62mi
105 Serenity Lp Lake Wales, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,245	$2.23	0d	31	0.62mi
243 C F Kinney Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	116d	1	0.71mi
343 Dinner Lake Ct Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,400	$1.33	110d	1	0.78mi
238 Dinner Lake Pl Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1913	$1,900	$0.99	65d	1	0.85mi
315 Dinner Lake Ct Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,000	$1.42	119d	1	0.88mi
802 Ballantyne Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,999	$1.04	73d	1	1.04mi
830 Ballantyne Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,990	$1.39	62d	1	1.07mi
819 Ballantyne Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,000	$1.04	9d	1	1.08mi
706 Benz St Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,900	$1.32	9d	1	1.09mi
474 Hennepin Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	119d	1	1.18mi
240 Masterpiece Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,500	$1.06	65d	1	1.20mi
240 Masterpiece Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,500	$1.06	63d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveSpec inventory type
• Financial info: List price available (price details provided separately)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Townhome-style/spec new construction (Plan 1557)Single entry level information not specified
• Construction: New construction (spec home)Living area 1,557
• Exterior features: Located at 430 Sequoia Dr, Lake Wales, FL

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open plan living area (1,557)New construction, Plan 1557

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $250,369 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $250,369 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $250,369 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $250,369 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $250,369 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $250,369 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   days on market $250,369 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $250,369 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $250,369 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,369 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,369 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,369 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,369 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,369 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,369 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,369 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,369 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-06-25
    days on market $250,369 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-06-23
    days on market $250,369 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,369 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,369 Active 77 DOM
22. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,369 Active 76 DOM
23. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,369 Active 75 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,369 Active 74 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,369 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-06-10
    days on market $250,369 Active 69 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,369 Active 68 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,369 Active 67 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,369 Active 66 DOM
30. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,369 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,369 Active 61 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,369 Active 60 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,369 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,025
• − Property taxes: −$3,756
• − Insurance: −$1,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$7,283
• Taxable loss: −$6,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This charming, two-story townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern kitchen, spacious living areas, and well-maintained exterior. Landscaping and fresh paint could further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spook Hill Elementary School F FL #1,862/2,144 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Mclaughlin Academy Of Excellence F FL #437/571 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Winter Haven Senior High School F FL #415/667 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Wales, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveSpec inventory type
• Financial info: List price available (price details provided separately)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Townhome-style/spec new construction (Plan 1557)Single entry level information not specified
• Construction: New construction (spec home)Living area 1,557
• Exterior features: Located at 430 Sequoia Dr, Lake Wales, FL

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open plan living area (1,557)New construction, Plan 1557