434 Venetian Way · Panama City, FL 32405

$147,450

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Townhouse public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1984 1,742 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $147k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located townhome in Venetian Villas with NO HOA. This property offers a great opportunity as a primary residence or rental investment. The home features a fenced-in backyard with a covered porch, perfect for outdoor relaxation or entertaining. Inside, you'll find a convenient half bath located downstairs for guests and everyday functionality, while all bedrooms are privately situated upstairs. Ideally located just 15 minutes from the white sandy beaches and close to restaurants, shopping, and everyday conveniences in Lynn Haven and Panama City. Low-maintenance living in a location that keeps you close to it all.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Half bath
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH
• HALF BATH
• PRIVATELY SITUATED BEDROOMS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,603 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,733
• List price: $147,450
• Delta: 0.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3900 Venetian Cir	0.09mi	2/1.5	972 (-4%)	10mo	$145,000	$149	80
3901 Venetian Cir	0.05mi	2/1.5	972 (-4%)	13mo	$181,000	$186	79
3906 Venetian Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+8%)	5mo	$196,883	$182	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,642
• Equity at exit: $21,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,587
• Equity at exit: $12,749

Cash invested: $41,286 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$773
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $147,450

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,862
• Closing costs: $4,424
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3938 Solano Rd Unit 3938 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	21d	1	0.08mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,634	$1.07	13d	34	0.21mi
1125 Bradley Cir Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,850	$1.55	13d	1	0.27mi
1019 Bradford Cir Unit 1019 Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,225	$1.51	21d	1	0.34mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,624	$1.38	13d	24	0.68mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,799	$1.88	13d	26	1.32mi
1409 Florida Ave Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,276	$1.59	21d	1	1.47mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,540	$1.25	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,450 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,450 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,450 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,450 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,450 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,450 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,450 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,450 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,450 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,450 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,450 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,450 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,450 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,450 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,450 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,450 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,450 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $147,450 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Centrally located townhome in Venetian Villas with NO HOA. This property offers a great opportunity as a primary residence or rental investment. The home features a fenced-in backyard with a covered porch, perfect for outdoor relaxation or entertaining. Inside, you'll find a convenient half bath located downstairs for guests and everyday functionality, while all bedrooms are privately situated upstairs. Ideally located just 15 minutes from the white sandy beaches and close to restaurants, shopping, and everyday conveniences in Lynn Haven and Panama City. Low-maintenance living in a location that keeps you close to it all.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $149,950 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Centrally located townhome in Venetian Villas with NO HOA. This property offers a great opportunity as a primary residence or rental investment. The home features a fenced-in backyard with a covered porch, perfect for outdoor relaxation or entertaining. Inside, you'll find a convenient half bath located downstairs for guests and everyday functionality, while all bedrooms are privately situated upstairs. Ideally located just 15 minutes from the white sandy beaches and close to restaurants, shopping, and everyday conveniences in Lynn Haven and Panama City. Low-maintenance living in a location that keeps you close to it all.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,259
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,289
• Taxable income: $1,109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $3,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $147,450 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $149,950 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,988 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.