712 - 714 Arcadia St · Warsaw, MO 65355

$319,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1987 9,583 sqft lot Est $277k · 15% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Rare Turnkey Duplex - Walk to Harbor & Downtown | Warsaw, MOOpportunities like this don't come along often. Located at 712-714 Arcadia Street, this fully updated duplex combines prime location, flexible living, and strong income potential--all just a short walk to the harbor and downtown Warsaw's shops, dining, and local attractions. 🏡 Two Units, Multiple Opportunities Unit 1: 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms with full basement access Unit 2: 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Live in one unit and rent the other, or rent both for maximum income. Perfect for investors, house-hackers, or future retirees looking for a second home. 🔨 Fully Updated - Move-In Ready Brand new heat pumps for b

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2.0bd/1.5ba + 1×2.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-214/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,000 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,431
• List price: $319,999
• Delta: 15.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $54,596
• Equity at exit: $190,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $184,796
• Equity at exit: $335,717

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 27.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $244,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-338	+0% $-429	+5% $-519	+10% $-610
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-505	+0% $-429	+5% $-353	+10% $-277
Rate	-1.0pp $-268	-0.5pp $-347	base $-429	+0.5pp $-512	+1.0pp $-596

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2.0	1.5	$960
1× unit	2.0	1	$960
Total (2 units)			$1,920

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,999 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,999 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,999 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,999 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,999 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,999 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $319,999 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $329,900 Active
19. 2025-08-03
    price $315,000
20. 2025-06-16
    listed $349,900 Active
21. 2003-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,104 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,494/yr (+$124/mo · 92.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warsaw, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $329,900 SOMO
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $315,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-16 Listed $349,900 SOMO
• 2003-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.