Bluebonnet Plan · Argyle, TX 76226

$393,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition $214/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In the Bluebonnet, the primary suite is located on the first floor, keeping everything centrally located. The open concept home design leads from the primary suite in the front of the home into the kitchen, great room, and dining area, creating a pleasant flow throughout the home. When you make your way upstairs, you'll find the secondary bedrooms and a loft area - a perfect space for gathering.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Primary suite
• Dining area

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN CONCEPT HOME DESIGN
• KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $393,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,696.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Argyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1561 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,565 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,696
• List price: $393,990
• Delta: -5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 Peaceful Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (-1%)	1mo	$350,000	$169	88
1341 Roundup Way	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,243 (+7%)	2mo	$435,000	$194	76
1624 Ginger Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,137 (+2%)	2mo	$429,724	$201	74
904 10th St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-10%)	3mo	$365,000	$194	72
1414 Roundup Way	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,318 (+10%)	2mo	$425,000	$183	68
1221 15th St	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,268 (+8%)	2mo	$449,000	$198	64
1529 Laurel Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-12%)	2mo	$394,215	$212	64
705 Fenceline Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,004 (-4%)	0mo	$415,000	$207	61
1316 16th St	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (+7%)	3mo	$525,000	$234	57
1508 Lavender Ln	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,242 (+7%)	2mo	$550,000	$245	55
1314 20th St	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (+7%)	0mo	$499,900	$223	49
221 Sunrise	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,371 (+13%)	1mo	$450,000	$190	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-111,049
• Equity at exit: $62,280

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-163,770
• Equity at exit: $36,115

Cash invested: $116,955 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $436,018 ($203/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1561
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,265/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,925

Max offer price $328,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-327	-5% $-471	+0% $-616	+5% $-760	+10% $-904
Rent	-10% $-864	-5% $-740	+0% $-616	+5% $-491	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-405	-0.5pp $-509	base $-616	+0.5pp $-724	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,424
• Closing costs: $12,531
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,595	$1.39	12d	1	0.06mi
904 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,800	$1.49	82d	1	0.06mi
716 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2289	$2,800	$1.22	11d	1	0.09mi
940 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,650	$1.45	20d	1	0.09mi
721 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,550	$1.35	139d	1	0.11mi
701 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,649	$1.41	139d	1	0.13mi
1401 Roundup Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2375	$4,450	$1.87	37d	1	0.16mi
840 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.5	2686	$3,500	$1.30	51d	1	0.20mi
605 Boardwalk Way Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,450	$1.33	45d	1	0.20mi
824 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2453	$3,250	$1.32	139d	1	0.30mi
816 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,595	$1.57	139d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	78d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	84d	1	0.32mi
1704 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2116	$3,497	$1.65	0d	19	0.33mi
1708 Laurel Ln Unit 2 Lantana, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,636	$1.43	18d	1	0.34mi
1804 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	4.0	2439	$3,167	$1.30	139d	1	0.36mi
1841 Woodlawn Way Unit 142 Lantana, TX	3.0	2.5	2062	$2,891	$1.40	26d	1	0.40mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2025	$2,575	$1.27	117d	1	0.40mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2025	$2,800	$1.38	4d	1	0.40mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,499	$1.47	120d	1	0.43mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,450	$1.44	24d	1	0.43mi
721 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,500	$1.25	41d	1	0.44mi
1108 16th St Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2932	$4,000	$1.36	35d	1	0.44mi
1929 Woodlawn Way Unit 98 Roanoke, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,771	$1.50	18d	1	0.45mi
1933 Woodlawn Way Unit 99 Northlake, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$3,820	$1.75	63d	1	0.45mi
517 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,295	$1.36	46d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,750	$1.37	115d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,800	$1.40	56d	1	0.46mi
809 Blossom Ln Unit 35 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,610	$1.42	117d	1	0.47mi
909 Blossom Ln Unit 51 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,704	$1.47	117d	1	0.47mi
1208 16th St Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2932	$4,000	$1.36	51d	1	0.48mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,540	$1.27	51d	1	0.49mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,640	$1.32	76d	1	0.49mi
433 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	51d	1	0.50mi
2029 Woodlawn Way Unit 85 Roanoke, TX	3.0	2.5	2062	$3,202	$1.55	0d	1	0.50mi
420 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,445	$1.20	107d	1	0.52mi
416 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,500	$1.22	12d	1	0.52mi
405 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2044	$3,000	$1.47	4d	1	0.53mi
1056 Homestead Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,490	$1.24	26d	1	0.54mi
1107 20th St Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2951	$3,690	$1.25	7d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $393,990 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $393,990 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $393,990 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $393,990 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $393,990 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $393,990 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $393,990 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $393,990 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $393,990 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $393,990 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $393,990 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $393,990 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $393,990 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $393,990 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $393,990 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $393,990 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $393,990 Active 217 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $393,990 Active 215 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $393,990 Active 214 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $393,990 Active 213 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $393,990 Active 212 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $393,990 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $393,990 Active 209 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $393,990 Active 208 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $393,990 Active 207 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $393,990 Active 206 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $393,990 Active 205 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $393,990 Active 204 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $393,990 Active 203 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $393,990 Active 202 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $393,990 Active 201 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $393,990 Active 200 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $393,990 Active 199 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $393,990 Active 198 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $393,990 Active 197 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $393,990 Active 196 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $393,990 Active 195 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $393,990 Active 194 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $393,990 Active 193 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $393,990 Active 192 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $393,990 Active 190 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $393,990 Active 189 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $393,990 Active 188 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $393,990 Active 187 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $393,990 Active 184 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $393,990 Active 183 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $393,990 Active 182 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $393,990 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $393,990 Active 179 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $393,990 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,397
• − Property taxes: −$6,265
• − Insurance: −$2,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,020
• − Management: −$3,020
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$12,151
• Taxable loss: −$14,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,490–$31,470 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint on the trim and maintaining the gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and can prevent water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Argyle

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 43,587
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Listed $393,990 Zillow