6113 Ayrin Rooke Ln · Blackshear, GA 31516

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1988 3.23 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home with good bones and sits on 3.23 acres at the end of the road. It has Pecan Trees, Amaryllis Plants, and Fruit Trees. It has a tankless hot water heater. It is a fixer upper but plenty of room to build another home if you like. You can have a workshop, mancave, she shed, office or a garden. Wild turkeys and deer have been seen in the yard. Most of the property is fenced.

Key facts

• Amaryllis plants
• Pecan trees
• Fruit tree

Tags

• 3.23 ACRES
• PECAN TREES
• AMARYLLIS PLANTS
• FRUIT TREE
• ROOM TO BUILD ANOTHER HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 3.23 acres (unimproved dirt road frontage)

Exterior

• Parking: Two-space carport
• Utilities: Propane service; Private well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Residential single zoning
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Carpet flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,071 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $466,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6162 Ayrin Brooke Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,055 (+7%)	10mo	$197,500	$96	70
3002 Sun Creek Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,874 (-2%)	11mo	$455,000	$243	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-11,767
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $596
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31516

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $169	+0% $134	+5% $98	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $88	+0% $134	+5% $180	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $166	base $134	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $125,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   price $125,000
7. 2026-05-02
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$243/yr (+$20/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $1,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blackshear

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #9915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,465
• Population (ZIP): 15,465

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 259.8612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $125,000 GIAR
• 2026-05-02 Listed $185,000 GIAR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $907 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.