12090 Canal St · Willis, TX 77318

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1976 5,580 sqft lot Est $111k · 49% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * * Awesome Mobile home on a Huge Pie Shaped lot with Large Shed and Carport * * * * * This is a Great Mobile Home with 2 Bedroom and 2 Baths! Great layout just needs tender loving care. This is a really unique property that is amazing and has a lot of features. This home has all everything you need to make it an amazing cash flowing rental or move in and pay very little on a mortgage. This Home also comes with a huge shed perfect for storing all of your tools, lake gear, boat equipment and more. The tucked away picnic area is perfect for relaxing after enjoying a day at lake conroe boating and fishing. A little bit rainy one day? No worries this property comes fully equipped with a car port to cover you up! Close to all amenities such as Lake Conroe, Boat Launches, Margaritaville Lake Resort Lake Conroe, Walmart Super Center, Chevron Gas Station with Amazing Secret Mexican Food (Truly is a Hidden Gem - Have the Torta:). This is a First come First Serve!!! Get the Deal Now before Gone!!

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Large shed
• Near boat launches

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• LARGE SHED
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAYS
• MINUTES FROM LAKE CONROE
• NEAR BOAT LAUNCHES
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Walnut Cove POA with a $33 monthly association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Single-level layout (rooms listed as first floor)
• Construction: Metal roof; Foundation: Pillar/Post/Pier and slab; Construction materials listed as unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first floor including a primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,880
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	61
8888 Water Oak St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	12mo	$195,000	$174	58
9871 Arbor Oak	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	57
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	1mo	$62,900	$52	53
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	4mo	$120,000	$99	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,785
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,029
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $377	+0% $331	+5% $284	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $262	+0% $331	+5% $399	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $373	base $331	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.35mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.37mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.37mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.38mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.44mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.45mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	1.14mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    listed $165,000 Active
15. 2024-07-26
    soldstatus Sold 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    * * * * * Awesome Mobile home on a Huge Pie Shaped lot with Large Shed and Carport * * * * * This is a Great Mobile Home with 2 Bedroom and 2 Baths! Great layout just needs tender loving care. This is a really unique property that is amazing and has a lot of features. This home has all everything you need to make it an amazing cash flowing rental or move in and pay very little on a mortgage. This Home also comes with a huge shed perfect for storing all of your tools, lake gear, boat equipment and more. The tucked away picnic area is perfect for relaxing after enjoying a day at lake conroe boating and fishing. A little bit rainy one day? No worries this property comes fully equipped with a car port to cover you up! Close to all amenities such as Lake Conroe, Boat Launches, Margaritaville Lake Resort Lake Conroe, Walmart Super Center, Chevron Gas Station with Amazing Secret Mexican Food (Truly is a Hidden Gem - Have the Torta:). This is a First come First Serve!!! Get the Deal Now before Gone!!

16. 2024-07-24
    soldstatus
17. 2024-07-09
    status Pending 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    * * * * * Awesome Mobile home on a Huge Pie Shaped lot with Large Shed and Carport * * * * * This is a Great Mobile Home with 2 Bedroom and 2 Baths! Great layout just needs tender loving care. This is a really unique property that is amazing and has a lot of features. This home has all everything you need to make it an amazing cash flowing rental or move in and pay very little on a mortgage. This Home also comes with a huge shed perfect for storing all of your tools, lake gear, boat equipment and more. The tucked away picnic area is perfect for relaxing after enjoying a day at lake conroe boating and fishing. A little bit rainy one day? No worries this property comes fully equipped with a car port to cover you up! Close to all amenities such as Lake Conroe, Boat Launches, Margaritaville Lake Resort Lake Conroe, Walmart Super Center, Chevron Gas Station with Amazing Secret Mexican Food (Truly is a Hidden Gem - Have the Torta:). This is a First come First Serve!!! Get the Deal Now before Gone!!

18. 2024-06-28
    price $49,000 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    * * * * * Awesome Mobile home on a Huge Pie Shaped lot with Large Shed and Carport * * * * * This is a Great Mobile Home with 2 Bedroom and 2 Baths! Great layout just needs tender loving care. This is a really unique property that is amazing and has a lot of features. This home has all everything you need to make it an amazing cash flowing rental or move in and pay very little on a mortgage. This Home also comes with a huge shed perfect for storing all of your tools, lake gear, boat equipment and more. The tucked away picnic area is perfect for relaxing after enjoying a day at lake conroe boating and fishing. A little bit rainy one day? No worries this property comes fully equipped with a car port to cover you up! Close to all amenities such as Lake Conroe, Boat Launches, Margaritaville Lake Resort Lake Conroe, Walmart Super Center, Chevron Gas Station with Amazing Secret Mexican Food (Truly is a Hidden Gem - Have the Torta:). This is a First come First Serve!!! Get the Deal Now before Gone!!

19. 2024-06-28
    listed $54,000 Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    * * * * * Awesome Mobile home on a Huge Pie Shaped lot with Large Shed and Carport * * * * * This is a Great Mobile Home with 2 Bedroom and 2 Baths! Great layout just needs tender loving care. This is a really unique property that is amazing and has a lot of features. This home has all everything you need to make it an amazing cash flowing rental or move in and pay very little on a mortgage. This Home also comes with a huge shed perfect for storing all of your tools, lake gear, boat equipment and more. The tucked away picnic area is perfect for relaxing after enjoying a day at lake conroe boating and fishing. A little bit rainy one day? No worries this property comes fully equipped with a car port to cover you up! Close to all amenities such as Lake Conroe, Boat Launches, Margaritaville Lake Resort Lake Conroe, Walmart Super Center, Chevron Gas Station with Amazing Secret Mexican Food (Truly is a Hidden Gem - Have the Torta:). This is a First come First Serve!!! Get the Deal Now before Gone!!

20. 2024-06-20
    soldstatus
21. 2024-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $838 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,182/yr (+$182/mo · 260.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+205.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $838 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.