2211 Avon St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 893 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1924 Est $80k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice and close to shopping

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($923 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $69k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.58%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,370
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Dow Pl	0.55mi	2/1.0	872 (-2%)	2mo	$145,000	$166	69
2821 Cooper Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	917 (+3%)	3mo	$95,000	$104	65
2125 State St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	986 (+10%)	4mo	$40,200	$41	63
1815 W Genesee	0.47mi	2/1.0	818 (-8%)	1mo	$74,000	$90	63
2105 Mershon St	0.44mi	2/1.0	822 (-8%)	5mo	$120,000	$146	62
2513 Barnard St	0.48mi	2/1.0	966 (+8%)	3mo	$41,000	$42	61
1719 N Charles St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	1mo	$37,000	$39	59
2312 Durand St	0.69mi	2/1.0	849 (-5%)	4mo	$24,750	$29	56
1523 W Genesee St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+5%)	3mo	$53,500	$57	56
1608 Congress Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	948 (+6%)	3mo	$64,000	$68	52
2250 Mershon St	0.46mi	2/1.5	1,005 (+12%)	6mo	$104,000	$103	50
35 Congress Court A	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,026 (+15%)	0mo	$115,000	$112	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $5,730
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $29,471
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $606

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $69,000 Active
18. 2025-08-18
    historical
19. 2025-08-18
    historical
20. 2025-08-07
    price $78,000
21. 2025-08-07
    price $78,000
22. 2025-06-30
    price $81,000
23. 2025-06-30
    price $81,000
24. 2025-06-30
    listed $73,000 Active
25. 2025-06-30
    listed $73,000 Active
26. 2022-05-03
    historical
27. 2022-05-03
    historical
28. 2022-04-15
    status Active
29. 2022-04-12
    historical
30. 2022-03-25
    price $45,000
31. 2022-03-25
    price $45,000
32. 2022-03-10
    listed $49,900 Active
33. 2022-03-10
    listed $49,900 Active
34. 2017-02-01
    soldstatus $20,000
35. 2006-10-18
    historical
36. 2006-10-18
    historical
37. 2006-04-18
    listed $48,500
38. 2006-04-18
    listed $48,500
39. 2006-03-06
    historical
40. 2006-03-06
    historical
41. 2005-09-06
    listed $49,500
42. 2005-09-06
    listed $49,500
43. 2003-11-04
    historical
44. 2003-10-31
    soldstatus $34,000
45. 2003-10-31
    soldstatus $34,000
46. 2003-08-16
    listed $38,500
47. 2003-08-16
    listed $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$886
• − Management: −$886
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+79.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $69,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $81,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $81,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-30 Listed $73,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-30 Listed $73,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-25 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-25 Price Changed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-10 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-10 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2017-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-10-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-04-18 Listed $48,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-18 Listed $48,500 REALCOMP
• 2006-03-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-09-06 Listed $49,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-06 Listed $49,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-11-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-10-31 Sold (MLS) $34,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-31 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-08-16 Listed $38,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-08-16 Listed $38,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · -17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.