7876 S Baja Stone Ave · Tucson, AZ 85756

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2006 4,356 sqft lot $177/sqft · 8% below area Est $299k · 8% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Fenced-in backyard
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Rincon Vista Middle School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #47 of 218 statewide, top 21%, 699 students, 23% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,848 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,904
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -8.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6421 E Koufax Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+2%)	1mo	$315,000	$199	79
6168 E Campolina Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (+0%)	2mo	$346,000	$222	74
5954 E Benburb Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+1%)	1mo	$364,508	$233	64
7838 S Splinter Way	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,385 (-11%)	2mo	$230,000	$166	62
7482 S Bullseye Way	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+1%)	1mo	$365,000	$233	60
6815 E Paseo DE Villalobos --	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+3%)	1mo	$347,000	$217	59
6543 E Brushback Loop	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (+11%)	2mo	$313,500	$181	55
5950 E Benburb Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-6%)	1mo	$346,500	$237	54
5934 E Benburb Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-6%)	1mo	$350,140	$240	53
6172 E Campolina Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-14%)	1mo	$334,900	$252	51
6167 E Campolina Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-14%)	1mo	$339,000	$255	50
6041 E Campolina Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	2mo	$355,000	$211	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,081
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,780
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,927/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $257,267

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-23	+0% $-100	+5% $-178	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-183	+0% $-100	+5% $-18	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-30	base $-100	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6365 E Star Mica St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,900	$1.22	3d	1	0.10mi
7769 S Delia Stone Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1904	$1,905	$1.00	3d	1	0.15mi
6339 E Garden Stone Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,695	$1.32	45d	1	0.17mi
6555 E Brushback Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,895	$1.16	45d	1	0.40mi
6590 E Cooperstown Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,750	$1.32	12d	1	0.40mi
6728 S Caminito Galano Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,100	$1.09	5d	1	0.49mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	3d	1	0.53mi
7355 S Wilmot Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$2,200	$1.30	18d	1	0.54mi
7996 S Nautilus Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	25d	1	0.55mi
6665 E Via Olmeda Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,250	$1.17	19d	1	0.57mi
7448 S Camino Cardal Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2167	$2,099	$0.97	16d	1	0.65mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	3d	1	0.66mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	0.70mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	12d	1	0.71mi
6638 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.74mi
5710 E Hermans Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	0.75mi
7453 S Via Plaza del Maya Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.80mi
7399 S Via Plaza del Maya Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,995	$0.99	25d	1	0.88mi
6420 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,100	$1.13	3d	1	0.88mi
6567 E Via Arroyo Azul Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,800	$1.04	21d	1	0.98mi
7080 S Dunnock Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,760	$1.45	5d	1	1.00mi
6889 S Harrier Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,750	$1.07	25d	1	1.25mi
6809 S Camino de Azar Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,695	$1.01	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

2. 2026-05-07
   price $275,000 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

3. 2026-04-23
   price $278,000 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

4. 2026-03-19
   price $293,000 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

5. 2026-03-05
   price $296,000 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

6. 2026-02-26
   listed $299,000 Active 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Welcome to 7876 S Baja Stone Ave, a property that exudes comfort and style. The primary bedroom enhanced by a generous walk-in closet for streamlined storage. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, providing ample space for your morning routine. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, a perfect spot for relaxation. The fenced-in backyard a space for outdoor activities. This property is a perfect blend of indoor luxury and outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to own a piece of tranquility. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

7. 2026-02-19
   soldstatus $290,000
8. 2018-11-01
   soldstatus $169,000 Closed 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Fresh exterior paint on this clean 3 bedroom 2 bath! Open floor plan flows right into living room with large kitchen and eating area. Split floor plans means master is private on back side of home with double vanities and huge walk in closet. Other 2 bedrooms share full bath with tub and shower. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included so you can just move right in to your new home for less than rent! Hurry at this price it will be gone in a blink of an eye!

9. 2018-11-01
   soldstatus $169,000

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Fresh exterior paint on this clean 3 bedroom 2 bath! Open floor plan flows right into living room with large kitchen and eating area. Split floor plans means master is private on back side of home with double vanities and huge walk in closet. Other 2 bedrooms share full bath with tub and shower. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included so you can just move right in to your new home for less than rent! Hurry at this price it will be gone in a blink of an eye!

10. 2018-10-29
    status Pending 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Fresh exterior paint on this clean 3 bedroom 2 bath! Open floor plan flows right into living room with large kitchen and eating area. Split floor plans means master is private on back side of home with double vanities and huge walk in closet. Other 2 bedrooms share full bath with tub and shower. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included so you can just move right in to your new home for less than rent! Hurry at this price it will be gone in a blink of an eye!

11. 2018-09-17
    historical Active Contingent 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Fresh exterior paint on this clean 3 bedroom 2 bath! Open floor plan flows right into living room with large kitchen and eating area. Split floor plans means master is private on back side of home with double vanities and huge walk in closet. Other 2 bedrooms share full bath with tub and shower. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included so you can just move right in to your new home for less than rent! Hurry at this price it will be gone in a blink of an eye!

12. 2018-09-10
    listed $169,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Fresh exterior paint on this clean 3 bedroom 2 bath! Open floor plan flows right into living room with large kitchen and eating area. Split floor plans means master is private on back side of home with double vanities and huge walk in closet. Other 2 bedrooms share full bath with tub and shower. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included so you can just move right in to your new home for less than rent! Hurry at this price it will be gone in a blink of an eye!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,927
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+62.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $278,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $293,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $296,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-26 Listed $299,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) $169,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-10-29 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-09-17 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-09-10 Listed $169,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,927 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.