21621 Sandia Rd #131 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $130/sqft · 55% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2021 AMERICAN FREEDOM home in Mountain View Villas GATE SENIOR COMMUNITY. This comes with a 2 CAR GARAGE with door opener, exhaust fan & long driveway for extra parking with additional concrete. Sellers have added alumawood covered deck at the front of home to enjoy the view with fencing around deck for added privacy. Seller has added power outlets here and front hose bib for easy watering. VERY spacious living room with built in niches for your special accessories & pictures. Open kitchen features a bar to accommodate extra seating and still can fit full dining table here too! Don't miss the walk in pantry with added shelves to storage all your goodies. The huge laundry room has sensor light with direct access to garage, no steps! The Master suite is away from other bedrooms with a large walk in closet and huge bathroom suite with lots of storage. Bedrooms 2 & 3 are good size with a full bath. The rear yard is easy care with astro turf & ready for your BBQ. Gate to driveway is easy access. The home is tastefully done and is move in ready. This is all owner occupied with space rent only $786. NO HOMEOWNER DUES! Private clubhouse, pool, work out room, & full kitchen for the social functions. WE HAVE A PREFERRED LENDER.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Built in niches
• Easy care rear yard

Tags

• ALUMAWOOD COVERED DECK
• BUILT IN NICHES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• EASY CARE REAR YARD
• PRIVATE CLUBHOUSE
• FULL KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.86%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,650
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 55.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21621 Sandia Rd #127	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	4mo	$155,000	$119	92
21621 Sandia Rd #95	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	6mo	$139,000	$107	90
21621 Sandia Rd #92	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$119,000	$89	89
21621 Sandia Rd #32	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	86
21621 Sandia #83	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	3mo	$100,000	$69	84
21621 Sandia Rd #163	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+3%)	14mo	$150,000	$108	84
21621 Sandia Rd #65	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	15mo	$135,000	$104	82
21621-100 Sandia Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	12mo	$115,000	$90	81
21621 Sandia Rd #42	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$110,000	$88	76
21621 Sandia Rd #50	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	14mo	$135,000	$94	76
21621 Sandia Rd #105	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$144,900	$101	73
21621 Sandia Rd #98	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-10%)	12mo	$121,000	$100	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,093
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $55,109
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	0.63mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	20d	1	0.66mi
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	0.74mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	16d	1	1.03mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	24d	1	1.14mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	5d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	1.23mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 5 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,450	$1.56	5d	1	1.23mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	43d	1	1.40mi
10547 Cochiti Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,649	$1.78	43d	1	1.42mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	43d	1	1.42mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	1d	1	1.44mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    status Active 1276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    Beautiful 2021 AMERICAN FREEDOM home in Mountain View Villas GATE SENIOR COMMUNITY. This comes with a 2 CAR GARAGE with door opener, exhaust fan & long driveway for extra parking with additional concrete. Sellers have added alumawood covered deck at the front of home to enjoy the view with fencing around deck for added privacy. Seller has added power outlets here and front hose bib for easy watering. VERY spacious living room with built in niches for your special accessories & pictures. Open kitchen features a bar to accommodate extra seating and still can fit full dining table here too! Don't miss the walk in pantry with added shelves to storage all your goodies. The huge laundry room has sensor light with direct access to garage, no steps! The Master suite is away from other bedrooms with a large walk in closet and huge bathroom suite with lots of storage. Bedrooms 2 & 3 are good size with a full bath. The rear yard is easy care with astro turf & ready for your BBQ. Gate to driveway is easy access. The home is tastefully done and is move in ready. This is all owner occupied with space rent only $786. NO HOMEOWNER DUES! Private clubhouse, pool, work out room, & full kitchen for the social functions. WE HAVE A PREFERRED LENDER.

16. 2026-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract 1276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    Beautiful 2021 AMERICAN FREEDOM home in Mountain View Villas GATE SENIOR COMMUNITY. This comes with a 2 CAR GARAGE with door opener, exhaust fan & long driveway for extra parking with additional concrete. Sellers have added alumawood covered deck at the front of home to enjoy the view with fencing around deck for added privacy. Seller has added power outlets here and front hose bib for easy watering. VERY spacious living room with built in niches for your special accessories & pictures. Open kitchen features a bar to accommodate extra seating and still can fit full dining table here too! Don't miss the walk in pantry with added shelves to storage all your goodies. The huge laundry room has sensor light with direct access to garage, no steps! The Master suite is away from other bedrooms with a large walk in closet and huge bathroom suite with lots of storage. Bedrooms 2 & 3 are good size with a full bath. The rear yard is easy care with astro turf & ready for your BBQ. Gate to driveway is easy access. The home is tastefully done and is move in ready. This is all owner occupied with space rent only $786. NO HOMEOWNER DUES! Private clubhouse, pool, work out room, & full kitchen for the social functions. WE HAVE A PREFERRED LENDER.

17. 2026-01-22
    listed $178,000 Active 1276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    Beautiful 2021 AMERICAN FREEDOM home in Mountain View Villas GATE SENIOR COMMUNITY. This comes with a 2 CAR GARAGE with door opener, exhaust fan & long driveway for extra parking with additional concrete. Sellers have added alumawood covered deck at the front of home to enjoy the view with fencing around deck for added privacy. Seller has added power outlets here and front hose bib for easy watering. VERY spacious living room with built in niches for your special accessories & pictures. Open kitchen features a bar to accommodate extra seating and still can fit full dining table here too! Don't miss the walk in pantry with added shelves to storage all your goodies. The huge laundry room has sensor light with direct access to garage, no steps! The Master suite is away from other bedrooms with a large walk in closet and huge bathroom suite with lots of storage. Bedrooms 2 & 3 are good size with a full bath. The rear yard is easy care with astro turf & ready for your BBQ. Gate to driveway is easy access. The home is tastefully done and is move in ready. This is all owner occupied with space rent only $786. NO HOMEOWNER DUES! Private clubhouse, pool, work out room, & full kitchen for the social functions. WE HAVE A PREFERRED LENDER.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$751
• After-tax cash flow: $5,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 American Freedom manufactured home in Mountain View Villas is in good condition with a covered deck and privacy fence. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Deck cleaning and maintenance — Clean and maintained deck improves usability and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures efficiency and reduces energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Deck cleaning and maintenance — Clean and maintained deck improves usability and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures efficiency and reduces energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $178,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,185 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.