253 Worcester Ave · Swatara, PA 17111

$224,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989 10,018 sqft lot Est $328k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This end unit townhouse is conveniently located in Swatara Township. Close to shopping restaurants and highways. 3 stories finished with 3 bedrooms with ceiling fans, 1.5 baths. Living room has fireplace and access to new rear deck. Large kitchen. Lower level has family room with ceiling fan and built-ins and offers walk-out patio with rear yard access. 1 car garage.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1989
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Dauphin East Shs (math 50% / reading 15%, grade F, #330 of 437 statewide, top 76%, 1,590 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.95%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,335
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Harford Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	2,050 (-1%)	18mo	$293,180	$143	77
640 Harvest Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,900 (-8%)	4mo	$335,000	$176	59
101 N 62nd	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,039 (-1%)	16mo	$440,000	$216	55
4810 Etta Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,118 (+3%)	7mo	$222,000	$105	53
6171 Huntingdon St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,970 (-5%)	18mo	$165,000	$84	53
6126 Chatham Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,180 (+6%)	1mo	$455,000	$209	52
4830 Etta Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,188 (+6%)	9mo	$305,000	$139	48
4903 Erie Rd	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,767 (-14%)	0mo	$281,000	$159	42
4818 Tamar Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,232 (+8%)	10mo	$365,000	$164	36
5050 Franklin St	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,350 (+14%)	12mo	$369,900	$157	33
4832 Sweetbrier Ter	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (-11%)	14mo	$299,900	$163	30
403 N 48th St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+11%)	12mo	$335,900	$146	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,938
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $35,381
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17111

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,237/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4810 Etta Rd Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	2118	$2,450	$1.16	14d	1	0.73mi
6226 Lehigh Ave Harrisburg, PA	4.0	4.0	2128	$2,975	$1.40	14d	1	0.76mi
6550 Somerset St Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,250	$1.51	14d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $224,900 Active
3. 2026-04-20
   historical $224,900
4. 2022-01-11
   soldstatus $190,000
5. 2022-01-07
   soldstatus $190,000 Closed 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This end unit townhouse is conveniently located in Swatara Township. Close to shopping restaurants and highways. 3 stories finished with 3 bedrooms with ceiling fans, 1.5 baths. Living room has fireplace and access to new rear deck. Large kitchen. Lower level has family room with ceiling fan and built-ins and offers walk-out patio with rear yard access. 1 car garage.

6. 2021-11-25
   historical Active Under Contract 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This end unit townhouse is conveniently located in Swatara Township. Close to shopping restaurants and highways. 3 stories finished with 3 bedrooms with ceiling fans, 1.5 baths. Living room has fireplace and access to new rear deck. Large kitchen. Lower level has family room with ceiling fan and built-ins and offers walk-out patio with rear yard access. 1 car garage.

7. 2021-11-22
   listed $190,000 Active 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This end unit townhouse is conveniently located in Swatara Township. Close to shopping restaurants and highways. 3 stories finished with 3 bedrooms with ceiling fans, 1.5 baths. Living room has fireplace and access to new rear deck. Large kitchen. Lower level has family room with ceiling fan and built-ins and offers walk-out patio with rear yard access. 1 car garage.

8. 2019-07-24
   soldstatus $145,000
9. 2019-07-19
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed
10. 2019-05-16
    listed $145,000
11. 2019-05-16
    historical
12. 2013-07-25
    soldstatus $123,900
13. 2013-07-25
    soldstatus $123,900
14. 2013-06-05
    listed $123,900
15. 2005-09-22
    soldstatus $130,400
16. 2005-09-20
    soldstatus $130,400
17. 2005-06-23
    listed $129,900
18. 1993-12-14
    soldstatus $87,000
19. 1990-03-27
    soldstatus $81,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,237 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,237
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $1,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $4,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Swatara

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawnton, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,744
• Household income: $86,385
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 22% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · India, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.67%
• Current HPI: 236.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+174.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-22 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-16 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $123,900 Public Records
• 2013-07-25 Sold (MLS) $123,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-05 Listed $123,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $130,400 Public Records
• 2005-09-20 Sold (MLS) $130,400 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-23 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,237 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.