5511 W Desperado Way · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$530,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2011 8,034 sqft lot Est $522k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained North Phoenix home in the sought after Stetson Valley community featuring a bright, open concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The expansive windows invite in natural light and frame surrounding mountain views. The kitchen features granite countertops, SS appliances, generous cabinetry, and seamless flow to the covered patio, perfect for enjoying Arizona evenings. The spacious primary suite includes a dual sink vanity, extended counter space, a full bath, and a large walk in closet. Desert landscaping enhances curb appeal with low maintenance ease. Ideally located near parks, pickleball courts, soccer

Key facts

• 8,034 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2011

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Inspiration Mountain School (486 students, 10% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($522k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,012 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $522,054
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5511 W Desperado Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,794 (0%)	1mo	$510,000	$284	96
5435 W Fetlock Trl	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,805 (+1%)	0mo	$525,000	$291	91
5435 W Quail Track Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (0%)	6mo	$655,000	$365	82
26704 N 55th Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (+1%)	3mo	$565,000	$312	71
5455 W Bajada Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-12%)	1mo	$534,000	$339	65
5253 W Maya Way	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (+7%)	1mo	$645,000	$337	64
26937 N 52nd Gln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (-6%)	2mo	$550,000	$327	63
5126 W Bajada Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,978 (+10%)	3mo	$555,000	$281	53
25919 N 54th Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,882 (+5%)	2mo	$410,000	$218	50
26408 N 53rd Gln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,661 (-7%)	11mo	$407,000	$245	48
5339 W Chisum Trl	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,883 (+5%)	6mo	$365,000	$194	48
5130 W Molly Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+11%)	11mo	$570,000	$285	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $222,186
• Equity at exit: $477,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $700,342
• Equity at exit: $1,029,673

Cash invested: $148,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,240/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,276

Max offer price $351,911

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,500
• Closing costs: $15,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	12d	1	0.12mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	0.12mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	1d	1	0.17mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	43d	1	0.18mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	7d	1	0.28mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	18d	1	0.32mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.33mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	16d	1	0.35mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	24d	1	0.36mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	7d	1	0.41mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	7d	1	0.43mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	2d	1	0.86mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	15d	1	1.11mi
6458 W Blue Sky Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,095	$0.94	15d	1	1.32mi
6427 W Silver Sage Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,390	$1.03	10d	1	1.38mi
6427 W Silver Sage Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,415	$1.04	20d	1	1.38mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	2d	1	1.42mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	21d	1	1.45mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	10d	1	1.45mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	24d	1	1.45mi
6418 W Mark Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2201	$3,250	$1.48	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
3. 2026-03-07
   listed $530,000 Active
4. 2026-03-02
   listed $530,000 Active
5. 2023-10-31
   historical
6. 2023-09-19
   listed $599,000 Active
7. 2023-09-17
   price $585,000
8. 2023-08-16
   historical $2,490
9. 2023-07-27
   price $2,490
10. 2012-02-22
    historical
11. 2011-12-13
    listed $232,990 Active
12. 2007-12-21
    soldstatus $21,739,323

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,240 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,498 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,688
• − Property taxes: −$3,240
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$15,418
• Taxable loss: −$22,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $530,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $530,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-10-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Listed $599,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $585,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-16 Rental Removed $2,490 ARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $2,490 ARMLS
• 2012-02-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-12-13 Listed $232,990 ARMLS
• 2007-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $21,739,323 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,240 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.